It's a loaded 12-game slate across the big leagues tonight, and I've pinpointed my best MLB moneyline picks for every single contest.
See it all in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31.
MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 31
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Giantsvs  Braves |
40% |
 Metsvs  Rays |
62% |
 Padresvs  Reds |
58% |
 Marlinsvs  Nationals |
52% |
 Marinersvs  Red Sox |
61% |
 Tigersvs  Twins |
56% |
 Brewersvs  Cubs |
51% |
 A'svs  Rangers |
68% |
 White Soxvs  Astros |
46% |
 Oriolesvs  Rockies |
45% |
 Yankeesvs  Angels |
55% |
 Philliesvs  Diamondbacks |
54% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Aug. 31.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 31
Giants vs Braves: Giants
Giants win probability: 40%
The Giants are a heavy underdog here at 40%, but they have the better pitching profile. Anthony Molina tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings in his first outing since being traded, and while he doesn't pitch deep into games, the Giants' pen is in good form. They own a 3.77 xERA over the last week with minimal walks and homers.
Bryce Elder, meanwhile, owns an FIP over four at home, and the Atlanta Braves starter has posted a 4.03 xERA over the last month. The Giants have a 111 wRC+ in their last seven games, and Elder is the more vulnerable arm here.
San Fran wins the opener.
Mets vs Rays: Rays
Rays win probability: 62%
The Rays send Ian Seymour to the mound tonight, and while he's had some home run troubles lately, the left-hander faces a Mets lineup in awful form. They have a 69 wRC+ in the last week and just a .111 ISO. Seymour has a respectable 4.13 FIP at home as well.
New York counters with Robert Stock. He's posted a 5.03 xERA across his previous five starts with serious command issues. Tampa is coming alive offensively lately with a 99 wRC+ in its previous six contests, and a 109 mark at home this season.
The Rays have the edge, but if this number moves, resort to the run line.
Padres vs Reds: Padres
Padres win probability: 58%
Michael King is the far more consistent arm right now. The righty has compiled a 3.10 xERA over his last two starts while giving up just 0.66 HR/9 and limiting opponents to a 22.9% hard-hit rate.
Brady Singer owns a 5.74 FIP during that same span, allowing 1.54 HR/9 and a troubling 53.8% hard-hit rate. San Diego isn't in great offensive form, but this matchup screams value, and King has been reliable lately.
Take the Padres, but also lock in the run line if this moves at all.
Marlins vs Nationals: Marlins
Marlins win probability: 52%
The Marlins have a better pitching setup tonight. Ryan Gusto hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two starts, and while he doesn't pitch very deep into games, Miami's pen has held its own lately.
Will Dion takes the hill as an opener for the Nationals, and he has a 6.38 FIP over his previous three outings with home run issues. Washington's relief corps is also struggling with a 6.55 FIP across the last week.
Miami has the edge.
Mariners vs Red Sox: Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 61%
We're looking at two ball clubs in horrendous offensive shape at the moment, but Payton Tolle's recent success is a clear advantage for the Red Sox. He sports a 2.99 FIP in his last two starts, and the Mariners struggle against left-handers, posting an 87 wRC+ this season.
George Kirby's underlying metrics suggest he's been much better than the numbers suggest, but the righty has still allowed 12 earned runs over his previous three outings.
Boston's lineup should capitalize.
Tigers vs Twins: Twins
Twins win probability: 56%
The Tigers have been literally invisible offensively. They've scored only nine runs in their last six contests, posting a 19 wRC+. Taj Bradley is dealing, collecting a 2.44 FIP in his last two outings with minimal home run damage.
Jackson Jobe has also pitched well, but I simply cannot overlook Detroit's struggles at the dish, and the Twins are swinging it a mile better.
Brewers vs Cubs: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 51%
The Cubbies get a tough matchup against Kyle Harrison tonight, but they're a force against left-handers, posting a 126 wRC+ this season. Chicago is also raking at the moment with a 138 wRC+ in the last week.
Clay Holmes has held his own since coming over via trade, posting a 3.08 FIP in his last 12 1/3 frames. The Brewers are swinging it well as well, but they're not as efficient on the road.
A's vs Rangers: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 68%
The Rangers have a ridiculous 141 wRC+ in their last six games, and it helps Jacob deGrom is on the mound. He's limited opponents to a 29.2% hard-hit rate in his previous two starts while collecting a 2.46 FIP.
Gage Jump has pitched well recently for the Athletics as well, but I refuse to overlook how Texas is swinging it. They are jumping on everything, and deGrom gives the stability.
White Sox vs Astros: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 46%
The White Sox get to face the vulnerable Peter Lambert tonight, who has an ERA over 10 recently and a 6.15 xERA in his last two outings.
Chicago is producing lately with a 115 wRC+ in the last week, and while Anthony Kay hasn't been great for them over the last couple of weeks, Houston is not swinging it consistently, and it isn't an efficient lineup against left-handed hurlers.
Orioles vs Rockies: Rockies
Rockies win probability: 45%
It's not often where I'd back the Rockies, but Kyle Bradish's struggles give them a clear opportunity to take advantage tonight. The righty has a 7.89 xERA over his last two starts with major home run issues, and Colorado is in respectable offensive form.
Baltimore faces Tanner Gordon, who has a 2.48 xERA recently while limiting the long ball. The Orioles are producing lately at the dish, but Bradish's inability to limit hard contact will hurt them early.
Yankees vs Angels: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 55%
The Yankees are the team in better offensive form, sitting well above the league average in wRC+ lately. While Walbert Urena is throwing the baseball well, he is not untouchable by any means.
Elmer Rodriguez allowed just three earned runs last week in his first start in the big leagues since June, keeping New York in the game.
With the Angels struggling to string together runs, the Bronx Bombers are the play.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 54%
Aaron Nola has really started to come into his own in what has been a poor season to his standards. The right-hander sports a 3.49 xERA over the last month, and he'll face a Diamondbacks offense that has posted just a 72 wRC+ in their previous seven games.
Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt owns an FIP over six in his last two starts while allowing 2.92 HR/9. The Phillies carry a 107 wRC+ over the last two weeks into tonight's matchup.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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