The New York Mets and Kansas City Royals begin a three-game set tonight at Kauffman Stadium.
Kodai Senga makes his return to the mound after a month on the IL, and my Mets vs. Royals predictions are eyeing him to miss some bats here.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, July 11.
Mets vs Royals prediction
My Mets vs Royals best bet: Kodai Senga Over 4.5 strikeouts (+104 at Caesars)
Although he was just injured for a while, Kodai Senga has undoubtedly been the New York Mets’ best pitcher this season.
The right-hander is 7-3 in 13 starts with a stellar 1.47 ERA, holding opponents to a .195 average and striking out 70 in 73 2/3 innings of work. The Ks will be my focus for tonight’s play.
Senga’s total strikeouts sit at just 4.5 this evening, and he’s cashed the Over in six consecutive appearances.
On June 12, before going on the shelf, he racked up five punchouts against the Washington Nationals. The start before that? Senga had six Ks versus the Colorado Rockies.
The Kansas City Royals may not strike out a lot, and Senga may be on some kind of pitch limit, but I still don’t believe it will be difficult for him to reach five Ks. Senga has struck out 32 batters in 36 innings on the road in 2025.
Mets vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Kodai Senga Over 4.5 strikeouts
Maikel Garcia Over 0.5 hits
Michael Wacha Over 4.5 strikeouts
Maikel Garcia has been tearing the cover off the baseball this year for the Royals, hitting .305 with eight home runs and 40 RBI. He’s cashed the Over in hits in six consecutive contests. There’s been just one game in July where Garcia hasn’t registered a hit.
Also, he’s 3-for-4 lifetime against Senga and swings it very well versus right-handed hurlers, batting .292. Garcia will keep his hit streak going in the series opener.
Over to K.C.’s starter, Michael Wacha. Although he’s not exactly an elite strikeout pitcher with just 79 Ks in 101 innings of work, Wacha’s total is also just 4.5 tonight. He’s hit the Over in four of his previous six outings and does tend to strike out more hitters at home.
Not only does his ERA sit at 2.81 at Kauffman Stadium, but the veteran has also collected 48 Ks in 51 1/3 innings of work at home. That’s compared to just 31 strikeouts in 49 2/3 road innings.
Mets vs Royals odds
Mets vs Royals live odds
Mets vs Royals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -136 | Kansas City +123
- Run line: New York -1.5 | Kansas City +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Mets vs Royals trend
The Mets have hit the Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Royals.
How to watch Mets vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Friday, 7-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, FanDuel Sports Network-Kansas City |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (7-3, 1.47 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.83 ERA) |
Mets vs Royals latest injuries
Mets vs Royals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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