Mets vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Fade deGrom Day

Jun 5, 2021 |
By: Zachary Cohen
Mets vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Fade deGrom Day
Padres starter Joe Musgrove comes into this game having allowed just one earned run over his last 21.2 innings of work.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Padres starter Joe Musgrove comes into this game having allowed just one earned run over his last 21.2 innings of work.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

On Saturday, June 5, the San Diego Padres host the New York Mets in MLB betting action at Petco Park in San Diego, California at 10:10 p.m. ET. This game will feature a big-time duel on the mound, as Jacob deGrom will take the ball for the Mets and Joe Musgrove will be on the hill for the Padres. 

Will Musgrove find a way to outperform deGrom and help San Diego win this one? Keep reading our Mets vs. Padres picks and predictions. 

Mets vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Saturday, June 5, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Bally Sports San Diego

Mets vs Padres odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

This moneyline jumped the fence, then came back at TwinSpires, where New York opened a -120 favorite, dipped to a +105 underdog, then rebounded to -112. As of 7 p.m. ET, the Mets are taking 56 percent of tickets and 65 percent of cash. With the seriously stingy Jacob deGrom on the bump for the Mets and a solid Joe Musgrove hurling for the Padres, the total is a short 5.5 (Over -120), with 68 percent of tickets/72 percent of money on the Over. 

Check out the full line movement for this game

Mets vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jacob deGrom (4-2, 0.71 ERA): deGrom has started eight games for the Mets this season and he hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of them. Let that sink in. Once again, the righty has been the best pitcher in baseball, and he will now look to keep a dangerous Padres lineup in check. However, if deGrom continues to strike out 10.3 batters per game, his opponents won’t have much of a chance to plate runs against him. 

Joe Musgrove (4-4, 2.08 ERA): Musgrove comes into this game having allowed just one earned run over his last 21.2 innings of work. He is arguably the most untouchable pitcher in the league outside of deGrom right now, which is why San Diego is likely feeling decent about its chances in this game. However, going toe to toe with deGrom can add a significant amount of pressure for any pitcher. Musgrove knows he’ll need to be perfect in order to give the Padres a chance in this game 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: 3B Jonathan Villar (questionable), OF Michael Conforto (out), 2B Jeff McNeil (out), 3B J.D. Davis (out), OF Brandon Nimmo (out), RP Dellin Betances (out)
Padres: C Austin Nola (out), OF Trent Grisham (out), RP Drew Pomeranz (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 8-0 in their last eight games against right-handed pitching. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.

Moneyline pick

DeGrom has been nearly flawless to start the season for the Mets, but he has been dealing with some nagging injuries. That has forced New York to be somewhat careful with his workload, and that’s why deGrom has mostly been pitching less than seven innings in his recent trips to the mound. The righty has thrown just one complete game this season, but that was in April, and he has since pitched no more than six innings in each of his last four starts. 

The point here is that deGrom can completely blank the Padres for some of this game, but they’ll eventually get a crack at a beatable Mets bullpen. And, also, there’s no guarantee of deGrom’s invincibility. There are guys in this San Diego lineup that have been surprisingly successful against him, with Victor Caratini being one of them. He is 4 for 9 with two homers and four RBI against deGrom in his career. 

Musgrove has been pretty similar to deGrom as of late. The righty has been completely unhittable for San Diego, but he hasn’t been working deep in games. Musgrove pitched seven innings against the Rockies on May 19, but he hasn’t gotten into the sixth inning in many other appearances. However, the Padres do have the best bullpen ERA in baseball, so they’re well equipped to protect any lead that Musgrove gives them. Also, the Mets have one of the worst offenses in baseball, so they aren’t likely to break out and beat up on the Padres in this one. 

PREDICTION: Padres ML (+102)

Over/Under pick

With the way these two starters are pitching, it’s hard to back an Over right now. And even though this total is extremely low, there’s no exception here. The Mets have scored just three runs over their last two games, and it’s not going to be easy to get the offense going against Musgrove.

The Padres bats have also struggled of late, scoring just 12 runs over the last five. This should be a pitcher’s duel for however long the two of them are able to be out there. 

PREDICTION: Under 6.0 (-118) 

Mets vs Padres betting card

  • Padres ML (+102) 
  • Under 6.0 (-118) 

Picks made on 6/5/2021 at 11:25 a.m. ET

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