With the warm weather here, is there anything better than a weekend afternoon in the sun with some live MLB prop bets to sweat? Betting on the boys of summer is one of our favorite good-weather past times, and with all-day entertainment, what more could we ask for?
Today, we’re backing a pair of early offenses in Buffalo, looking at an alternative total in Baltimore, and trying to cash in on a former NL MVP.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Saturday, June 5, 2021.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Blue Jays/Astros first five Over 5 (-110)
Over the last month, the newly-relocated Jays are second in the league in wRC+ and are slashing .282/.360/.456. They are the talk of the town but face an Astros team Saturday afternoon that is the only offense better than Toronto since the beginning of May.
Despite averaging just one 1.01 homer per game over the last month, the Astros are averaging over five runs per game on the season and are fresh off a 13-run performance in Buffalo last night. On Saturday, they'll see starting pitcher Ross Stripling and his generous ways one night after going 16 for 42 against Hyun Jin Ryu.
Houston hasn’t seen a ton of Stripling but that might not matter with how hot the Astros bats are. The middle of the Houston order went 7 for 15 last night, and that excludes what Jose Altuve, Yordan Alverez and Kyle Tucker did. One through six, this is as dangerous as any team can offer but if there's one team that can go toe-to-toe with the Astros' sticks, it’s the Jays.
The Jays’ offense owns three Top-10 fantasy players over the last 30 days and will be looking to avenge a lopsided loss from yesterday. Vladimir Guerrero is tied for the league-lead in homers, while leadoff man Marcus Semien had an OPS north of 1.000 over the last month.
Yesterday’s 14-run game started slowly but finished off with 10 runs in the final four innings. We like the bats from both teams to carry that confidence over into Saturday and get things going early versus Stripling and Jose Urquidy. Sahlen Field is a launching pad. It’s a first-five Over for us on Saturday afternoon.
Indians/Orioles alternative total Under 6.5 (+191)
The Orioles are bad but have somehow managed to rip off three straight wins, including yesterday’s 3-1 victory over the Indians. Before the orange birds got hot, they had dropped their previous 14 straight games and 21 of their last 19. John Means’ no-hitter back on May 5 seems like a lifetime ago as the Orioles have gone 4-18 SU since.
Even in their three most recent wins, Baltimore has amassed just eight total runs and is baseball’s 23rd-worst offense. Scoring runs at a bottom-10 rate is defining this team, and facing Cleveland's Aaron Civale on Saturday is not a recipe for breaking out, either.
The Cleveland starter is coming off a rough start that saw him give up 10 hits in six innings. However, the right-hander still owns a 1.06 WHIP on the year and has pitched into the seventh inning in seven of his 11 starts this year. Civale has logged a quality start in 64 percent of his starts.
Means has made four starts since his no-no and still owns a WHIP south of 1.00 on the year. There haven’t been many bright spots on this Baltimore team, but the lefty’s emergence of success has been one of the few. Most Cleveland batters haven't even seen the southpaw while the others who have are a combined 0 for 11 vs Means.
The Cleveland offense has also been a bottom-10 unit all year and is not hitting LHPs any better. The Tribe are slashing .223/.292/.340 versus left-handed pitching and have scored more than five runs just twice over their last 14 games.
With a pair of poor offenses and a set of starters who can go deep, we’re looking at the alternative total line on the BAL/CLE matchup and hitting the Under 6.5 for a nice +191.
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 runs (-145)
Milwaukee has woken up out of its early-season slumber and has ripped off 10 wins over its last 13 games. It may be no coincidence that the success began around the same time former NL MVP Christian Yelich returned to the lineup.
Since suiting up from an early-season injury, Yelich has hit the ball hard, and despite a .229 AVG over the last two weeks, owns a .885 OPS. He has hit safely in six of his last seven games and is averaging nearly a run per game over that stretch. There is always a point when players look fully recovered from an injury and the outfielder looks to be there now.
The No. 3 hitter will face Arizona’s RHP Merrill Kelly Saturday afternoon. The former KBO pitcher, coming off his worst start of the year, owns an ERA north of 5.00 and gives up more than a hit per inning.
Yelich hasn’t posted many multi-hit games this year, but he hasn’t had trouble drawing walks and getting on base either. With a generous Arizona team – 4.81 runs allowed per game – we like the Brewers' best player to cross the plate on Saturday and don’t mind paying a little juice to get it.
With eight runs scored over his last seven contests including a trio of multi-run performances, good players tend to score with hot offenses when facing below-average starters.
MLB betting card for June 5
- Blue Jays/Astros first five Over 5 (-110)
- Indians/Orioles alternative total Under 6.5 (+191)
- Christian Yelich Over 0.5 runs (-145)
Picks made on 6/5/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET
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