MLB Picks

Conditions are ideal for power, with 17 mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures around 80 degrees — a strong setup for home runs. Jake Burger gets a premium matchup against Zach Eflin, who is coming off back surgery and posted the second-worst HR/9 among starters with 60+ innings last season. Burger, hitting out of the cleanup spot, is 3-for-7 with a home run against Eflin in his career. THE BAT projects a fair price around +375, making current numbers appealing. There are multiple ways to attack this game, especially with Texas yet to name a starter. Samuel Basallo at +550 or better also projects as +EV for the Baltimore Orioles. Betting on the earliest game of the slate is also an easy decision. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Jake Burger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The weather report predicts the 3rd-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Jake Burger hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Brady House is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.

CJ Abrams is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.. CJ Abrams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Painter today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the best field in baseball for righty home runs.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Bryan Reynolds has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 91st percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the best field in baseball for righty home runs.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Williamson throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have an edge in today's game.

Throwing 92.8 adjusted pitches per start since the start of last season on average, Erick Fedde places in the 84th percentile.. The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Owen Caissie, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine).. Doug Eddings profiles as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be umping today.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. This contest is predicted to have the 6th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 97th percentile with a 22.2° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in baseball.. The standard deviation of Miguel Vargas's launch angle since the start of last season (26.4°) is in the 78th percentile. A low deviation like this tends to lead to a higher rate of base hits.

He may be 41 years old, but Max Scherzer looked like he was in his prime in spring training. In three starts he posted a 0.66 WHIP with as many strikeouts (nine) as hits and walks combined.

His first start sees him taking on a Rockies squad that is fanning like they’re serving a pharoah during his leisure period. They rank second in MLB with a 37.2% chase rate and third with a whiff rate of 34.9%. That’s led to them averaging more than a strikeout per inning at the plate. 

Cody Ponce’s knee injury yesterday led to five relievers pitching nearly seven innings yesterday, so Scherzer is likely going to be allowed a bit more rope today. He should get six innings against an offense posting a .215 xBA so far this season.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best field in the majors for righty home runs.. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Rogers Centre has the 6th-shallowest in the majors.. Kazuma Okamoto will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Over the past 7 days, Kazuma Okamoto has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .433.

I don’t usually put a lot of weight into batter vs. pitcher data given the small samples, but it’s hard to ignore that Brent Rooker has taken José Suárez deep three times in just five at-bats — especially with Rooker sitting at +475. Rooker had a strong spring and may be off to a slow start, but the power is real. He has legitimate 40-HR upside, which puts him in a rare tier of hitters. Suárez is more of a bullpen arm being stretched into a starting role due to the injury to Spencer Strider, which adds risk. The environment isn’t elite, but 80-degree weather in Atlanta with a total of 9 is still solid. Fair value on this HR prop is closer to +400, and Rooker projects similarly to names like Ronald Acuña Jr., Shea Langeliers, and Austin Riley — all of whom are priced shorter.

The Athletics have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Austin Wynns, Denzel Clarke).. Truist Park ranks as the #10 venue in the league for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Jose Suarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Among all starting pitchers, Jose Suarez's fastball spin rate of 2417 rpm grades out in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.

Richie Palacios's BABIP ability is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Richie Palacios is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 10th-worst ballpark in the game for lefty batting average.. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Feduccia in the 9th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Hunter Feduccia is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 10th-worst ballpark in the game for lefty batting average.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Hunter Feduccia in today's matchup.

Mike Trout doesn't need much of an invitation, and Taillon is practically rolling out the red carpet. 

Ten home runs and nine walks in just 13.1 spring training innings tell you that this is a pitcher who can't find the zone and is getting destroyed when he does. 

Trout has already taken Taillon deep in their career matchup. The Angeles slugger launched two bombs on Opening Day at Houston, and I’ll back him to do it again Tuesday night at Wrigley.

 

José Soriano is riding a 29.2% strikeout rate and a jaw-dropping 41.3% whiff rate through his 2026 opener. This follows a strong spring where the Los Angeles Angels righty struck out 13 across 11 ⅔ and eight per nine frames in 2025. 

Cold, heavy air at Wrigley Field plays right into Soriano's hard sinker and devastating slider combo. Back him to punch out at least five on Tuesday night.

A hitter’s stats against a certain pitcher don’t often mean much going forward, but they can give an indication that a hitter sees the ball well coming from said pitcher’s hand.

That’s exactly what we have with Francisco Lindor going up against Adam Pallante. It’s not simply that he’s posted a .462 average and slugged .462 against the RHP, but that he’s averaged an exit velo of 98.6 mph in 13 ABs while striking out just twice. 

Pallante ranked in the fourth percentile in strikeout rate last season, and he doesn’t throw with much velocity. Not a great combo against a hitter rocking a .250 ISO and .545 SLG vs. RHP this season. 

I love Lindor to get into one, especially given St. Louis may flirt with a record-high temperature today.  

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kodai Senga to be on a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.. It is anticipated that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Hunter Wendelstedt) in charge of the strike zone in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the worst ballpark in baseball for strikeouts.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.3-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for lefty home runs.. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today.. Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #6 stadium in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (48% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Isaac Paredes usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage today.

Anytime you get an opportunity to fade German Marquez is a good time to fade German Marquez.

It’s an understatement to say the Giants have gotten off to a bad start offensively this season, with four runs through four games. Rafael Devers has been a tad unlucky to be slugging only .333 though, given his 62.5% hard hit rate and 94.1 average exit velocity.

Tuesday gives him a great opportunity to find some luck. Marquez was awful last season, and he followed that up by posting a 7.16 ERA in spring training. He allowed three HR in four starts, as opponents slugged .438 on him.

Devers posted a .256 ISO vs. RHP last season, and should get at least two appearances against Marquez. I won’t be surprised to see one of them resulting in a trot around the bases, but we’ll settle for an extra-base hit.  

 

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Heliot Ramos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Heliot Ramos has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 116 mph (an advanced standard to study power), checking in at the 93rd percentile.. Heliot Ramos has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (an important ability for batting average), grading out in the 95th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.

It is scheduled that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Alfonso Marquez) in charge of the strike zone today.. Max Fried will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (44.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Cal Raleigh are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Casey Mize to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.. Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19% underlying K%.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 4th-worst ballpark in the league for strikeouts.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colt Keith in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Colt Keith is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in MLB for LHB batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Shohei Ohtani was elite at home last year with a 1.71 ERA and looks dialed in after racking up 11 strikeouts in his final spring outing. On the other side, Tanner Bibee saw a massive drop-off on the road last season, posting a 5.17 ERA, which was nearly two runs worse than at home. He faced the Dodgers in 2025 and allowed four ERs and 10 baserunners. Factor in the Dodgers’ early edge at the plate and out of the bullpen, and this has all the makings of a multi-run win.

When estimating his home run talent, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest average fence height among all major league parks.