The New York Mets (38-22) are rolling right now, winners of seven of their last eight, and they’ll look to keep it going Tuesday night against the Los Angeles Dodgers (36-24).
Clayton Kershaw gets the start for L.A., but my Mets vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for June 3 are all about backing Francisco Lindor’s total bases prop.
Mets vs Dodgers prediction
My Mets vs Dodgers best bet: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
Los Angeles Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw returned to the mound on May 17 after recovering from a bone spur in his toe and a torn meniscus in his knee, both of which required surgery in late 2024.
He’s made just 10 starts since the beginning of the 2024 regular season, and the results (4.50 ERA a year ago, 4.91 ERA this season) indicate regression for the 37-year-old. Due to numerous starting pitcher injuries, L.A. will be happy for whatever it can get out of the future Hall of Famer.
He’ll likely need time to ramp up in his return from multiple injuries, so right now we’re left with something that is far from resembling “Peak Kershaw.” The lefty ranks 170th out of 186 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings in Pitching+ (90), ranking poorly in stuff (95 Stuff+) and command (90 Location+).
His average fastball velocity is down to a career-low 89.2 mph, and batters are punishing it to the tune of a .361 xBA and .486 xSLG.
It’s still a small sample size, and he doesn’t have enough innings to qualify, but he’d be in the Bottom 10 percentiles in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, chase rate, and hard-hit rate if he did. That’s a long list.
So far, right-handed bats have gotten the better of him (.300/.405/.533), saddling him with a 1.88 WHIP and 5.70 FIP. One hitter on the New York Mets who will be ready to capitalize is Francisco Lindor.
The switch-hitting shortstop homered last night in the series opener, making it four home runs in his previous four games.
Lindor has exceeded his total bases prop in all four of those games, of course. He will have the platoon advantage against an aging veteran with poor recent results, and will benefit from winds of 6-10 mph blowing out at Chavez Ravine.
Mets vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases
Dodgers moneyline
Tylor Megill Under 5.5 strikeouts
Although the Mets won the opener, they moved to just 14-15 on the road this season. The Dodgers are 21-10 at home and have the more well-rested bullpen, so I’m backing them to end New York’s winning streak.
Tylor Megill’s 3.52 ERA, 3.60 xERA, and 3.10 FIP certainly look pretty. I’m betting on regression, however, especially in the strikeout department.
His 11.1% swinging strike rate indicates that his 12.1 K/9 is flat-out unsustainable. The Dodgers have a respectable 20.3% K rate against RHP across the last 10 days and average the fifth-most pitches seen per plate appearance on the season, so they can make Megill labor.
Mets vs Dodgers odds
Mets vs Dodgers live odds
Mets vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Los Angeles -139
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Mets vs Dodgers trend
Francisco Lindor has recorded 2+ total bases in four straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs Dodgers.
How to watch Mets vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 6-3-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, SNLA |
| Mets starting pitcher | Tylor Megill (4-4, 3.52 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 4.91 ERA) |
Mets vs Dodgers latest injuries
Mets vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
