The Florida sunshine is a sight for sore eyes after the Miami Dolphins’ dud of a game in the cold of Pittsburgh on Monday.
Miami takes on another AFC North opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals, who were handed a goose egg against Baltimore last weekend.
I run down the opening odds, early lines moves, and give my early Bengals vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks for December 21.
Bengals vs Dolphins predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Bengals vs Dolphins spread pick: Dolphins +2.5
The Miami Dolphins’ recent success got put on ice in a cold-weather game at Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in those conditions throughout his career, but will be back in Hard Rock Stadium in Week 16... if he’s still the starter.
This spread opened at Dolphins +1.5 after the MNF result and jumped to +2.5 on Tuesday afternoon following comments from head coach Mike McDaniel around Tua and his role as the starter.
“Everything is on the table,” McDaniel told the media when asked about a possible swap under center.
Regardless of the QB, Miami’s run-heavy offense will have success against the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank among the worst run stop units in the NFL. Cincinnati is 27th in run stop win rate at ESPN, and getting bullied for a 46.2% success rate per run from opponents.
The Fins can control possession and tempo, milking the clock and keeping Joe Burrow and an explosive Cincy air attack on the sidelines. Burrow is coming off a bad showing against the Ravens last week and has thrown four interceptions in the past two games.
Early Bengals vs Dolphins total pick: Under 50.5
Given the Dolphins’ propensity to feed running back De’Von Achane and lean heavily into the ground game, Miami will chip away at a soft Cincy defense for shorter gains that will keep the clock ticking.
The last thing the Dolphins want is to get into a shootout with the Bengals. Burrow and this offense still pack a punch when it cares. With nothing to play for and a porous pass protection in front of him, Burrow doesn’t seem thrilled to be in Cincinnati right now.
This Dolphins defense wasn’t great against the Steelers on Monday, but held on as long as it could, getting nothing from the Miami offense in support and logging more than 33 minutes of action.
Before Week 15, Miami’s stop unit was playing good football, ranking No. 8 in EPA allowed per play between Week 10 and Week 14.
This Over/Under opened at 50.5 — just short of the key number of 51 points. Fifty is also a common final tally, so I’m leaning Under.
Bengals vs Dolphins odds
- Bengals vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins +2.5
- Bengals vs. Dolphins moneyline: Bengals -135, Dolphins +115
- Bengals vs. Dolphins Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Bengals vs Dolphins
- Bengals vs. Dolphins matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Miami, FL
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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