The Chicago Cubs escaped a ninth-inning threat to win the series opener and will go for their third win in four games when they take on the New York Mets at Wrigley Field on Wednesday night.
MLB's two-lowest scoring teams lived up to the billing Tuesday, as they combined to push four runs across the board in the Cubs' 3-1 victory.
Should we expect another game with little offense? Find out with our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Cubs at 7:40 p.m. ET on April 21.
Mets vs Cubs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAfter opening a -145 favorite Tuesday afternoon, New York twice dipped as low as -125 and is -130 as of 4:30 p.m. ET today at PointsBet USA. Chicago is taking 60 percent of moneyline bets and 54 percent of moneyline cash. The total opened at 7.5 (Under -120) and moved a few cents to Under -115, with 56 percent of bets on the Over/62 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
David Peterson (1-1, 6.30 ERA): The 25-year-old will look to build off the best outing of his young career. Peterson was sensational his last time out, throwing six innings of three-hit ball, while allowing one run, issuing no walks, and matching a career-high with 10 strikeouts in a win over the Phillies. He was solid in his rookie 2020 season, pitching to a 3.44 ERA, but struggled with control after not showing those issues during his time in the minor leagues. Through two starts, he's been back to pounding the zone, and takes an impressive 7.5 strikeout-to-walk rate into this outing.
Zach Davies (1-2, 10.32 ERA): The soft-tossing righty has gotten off to a miserable start in his first season with the Cubs, who acquired him in the deal that sent Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres. Davies has been battered in each of his last two outings, allowing 11 runs and issuing six walks over 5 2-3 innings. He failed to get out of the second inning two starts ago against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates (surrendering five runs on seven hits) and followed it up with another stinker against the Atlanta Braves, who got seven hits and four runs against him before Davies was yanked after four innings. There's not much to be excited about here.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Dellin Betances RP (Out), Seth Lugo RP (Out).
Cubs: Rowan Wick RP (Out), David Bote 3B (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Mets are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cubs.
Moneyline pick
The Mets' schedule has been a mess so far. They started the season late because of COVID cases with the Nationals, have had six postponements total, and another game that was suspended due to rain. Despite the challenges that have thrown them out of sync, New York sits in first place in a loaded National League East at 7-5.
It can credit its pitching for that because the offense has not been pulling its weight. The Mets' pitching ranks fourth in ERA (2.87) and second in FIP (2.71), thanks to allowing the second-fewest homers per nine innings while striking out an MLB-best 30.3 percent of the batters they've faced.
New York's relievers have been on point and the club's starting pitching has been dynamite, led by NL Cy Young favorite and ace Jacob deGrom. But the Mets have gotten plenty of good pitching outside of him, from Marcus Stroman to tonight's starter Peterson, particularly in his last start.
Peterson will face a swing-and-miss Cubs offense that has the majors' second-highest K rate, is second from the bottom in weighted runs created plus, and has the fourth-worst OBP at a paltry .286. He's in a good spot to build off a dominant outing.
The Mets haven't dropped two in a row all season and that's not going to change today.
PREDICTION: Mets (-130)
Over/Under pick
The Mets have only scored nine runs over their last four games, but Davies gives them an opportunity to kickstart their offense. Davies has been erratic and the Mets have the eighth-best walk rate in the majors, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the club's big, yet struggling, bats like shortstop Francisco Lindor, outfielder Michael Conforto, and Pete Alonso to do damage.
The Cubs starter isn't overly homer-prone, but he's very hittable, and outside of last year has been well below-average at missing bats. There should be plenty of balls put in play, which always increases the chance for runs to be plated, so don't be too scared off by the Mets' MLB-worst 3.17 runs per game.
New York is the only team scoring fewer runs than the Cubs' mark of 3.38. But, unlike Chicago, the Mets have actually been respectable in a few offensive categories, ranking fourth in the majors in OBP (.330) and 10th in batting average to go along with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Their biggest problem has been hitting for power (their .105 isolated power percentage, which measures extra-base hit frequency, is the worst in the game), but there's enough thump in the lineup to correct that quickly.
The Over is 3-7 in 10 games at Wrigley Field this season and the Cubs' once-frightening offense is among the game's worst, but Davies could get lit up and threaten to blow past the total himself. This is a good spot for New York's bats to wake up and chase Davies early before getting to a Cubs bullpen that issues more free passes than any team in baseball.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-105)
Mets vs Cubs betting card
- Mets (-130)
- Over 7.5 (-105)
Picks made 04/21/2021 at 12:25 p.m. ET.
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