The 2021 season is just over a month old and MLB Cy Young betting odds are heating up. With so many good pitchers dominating the game with high strikeout numbers, the Cy Young odds race promises to be exciting this year.
New York aces Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole have been filthy and are likely to be among the leaders, but other Cy Young favorites like Tyler Glasnow and Aaron Nola are already building early cases with strong starts.
Let's take a look at the National League Cy Young odds and American League Cy Young odds and see where everyone stacks up. We'll go through the deep fields and see who has the best value as we break down the pitchers with the best odds to win the Cy Young.
Odds to win AL Cy Young award
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Favorite to win the AL Cy Young award
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+115)
Cole delivered in his first season with the Yankees after signing a record-setting nine-year, $324 million deal, putting up a 2.84 ERA and striking out 32.4 percent of the batters he faced, good for the third-best mark in the AL. While the Yankees fell short of the World Series, Cole struck out 12 or more batters in three postseason appearances.
The three-time All-Star has picked up right where he left off — in fact, he's even better in Year 2 in pinstripes. Cole is striking out 13.3 batters per nine innings through eight starts, to go along with a microscopic 1.37 ERA, while leading all starting pitchers with a 2.7 WAR (per FanGraphs) and sitting second with a 1.14 FIP. As long as the fireballer stays on the mound, he'll be a good bet to win his first Cy Young award this season.
The biggest threat to Cole will likely be Cleveland ace Shane Bieber, who claimed the prestigious award in 2020 and leads the majors in strikeouts (Cole is third).
Sharp bet to win the AL Cy Young award
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays (+600)
The Tampa Bay Rays electric right-hander has had no issues assuming the role of ace now that Blake Snell is off in San Diego.
Glasnow has the second-most strikeouts in the majors, fanning at least six in all of his nine starts while punching out 10-plus in five of them. He's among the Top-10 starters in WAR and FIP, and has a 2.35 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.
The fireballer has been a workhorse for a Rays team that loves to utilize its bullpen, tied for second in the majors in innings pitched by throwing six-plus in all but two outings.
Best value bet to win the AL Cy Young award
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins (+3,500)
It's hard to see anyone outside of this top-heavy group winning the award, but Twins righty Jose Berrios is an intriguing arm to look at while he's still clocking in at +3,500 odds.
The talent has always been there but Berrios hasn't quite reached ace potential — and may not even be the best pitcher on his own team, with 2020 AL Cy Young runner-up Kenta Maeda also calling Minnesota home. While Berrios struggled a bit during last year's shortened season, we have to take those numbers with a grain of salt. The two years before that he logged 190-plus innings in each season, and was 3.1 WAR in 2018, per FanGraphs, and 4.3 WAR in 2019.
At only 26 years old, another leap forward is not out of the question for the two-time All-Star, and so far he's off to a strong start, with a 1.14 WHIP and career-best strikeout rate (9.7 Ks per nine innings) through eight starts. If he continues on that path, he's going to stay in the Cy Young mix.
Odds to win NL Cy Young award
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Favorite to win the NL Cy Young award
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (-125)
Jacob deGrom is gunning for his third Cy Young award in four years and is so far the odds-on NL betting favorite to do so at -125, up from the +220 he was at just over a month ago. While the Mets ace was unable to nab the award last season after a dominant campaign that saw him post a 2.38 ERA while striking out 104 batters in 68 innings, he has been virtually unhittable in 2021.
The 32-year-old deGrom has struck out nearly 50 percent of the batters he's faced through six starts, and sports a 0.68 ERA and 0.60 WHIP. He has allowed three earned runs over 40 innings, has no-hit stuff nearly every start, and is the favorite for a reason.
The only thing that can derail deGrom's Cy Young candidacy is injury — and he's currently on the 10-day IL due to right side tightness.
Sharp bet to win the NL Cy Young award
Trevor Bauer, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1,600)
Bauer was the biggest free-agent signing of the offseason, when the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner joined the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
He's lived up to expectations so far, asserting himself as the ace of the staff, leading all Dodgers starters with a 2.20 ERA, leading all NL starters in innings pitched, sitting second in the NL with a 12.1 K/9 and posting a career-low 0.75 WHIP.
Los Angeles has scuffled a bit lately amid a number of injuries, but Bauer has gone out every five days and continued to deal. The Dodgers will eventually turn it around, and the best pitcher on what should finish as the best team in baseball will definitely be in the Cy Young conversation again.
Best value bet to win the NL Cy Young award
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (+1,800)
Following an excellent final season with the Cubs, in which he posted a career-best 2.01 ERA over 12 starts, Darvish finished second in Cy Young voting for the second time in his career. Now in San Diego with the Padres, Darvish is part of a stacked rotation that also features Snell and one of the hottest pitchers in the game in Joe Musgrove, who threw a no-hitter in his second start with San Diego.
When he's on, Darvish is as dominant as they come. He throws gas, has a deep repertoire, and has three 200-plus strikeout seasons to his name. Through his first eight starts with the Padres, the right-hander has a 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and is striking out hitters at well over a batter per inning. On a World Series favorite team, there might not be better value in either league than Darvish at +1,800 odds.
Understanding Cy Young odds
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Shane Bieber looked to have the AL Cy Young locked up last September, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number.
- Shane Bieber -300
That means that a bettor in September had to wager $300 to win $100 by betting on Bieber. Before this year's race even began, every candidate had a (+) sign in front of their number.
- Gerrit Cole +325
With Cole's current odds, a bettor stands to profit $325 for every $100 wagered on him.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
How to bet futures odds
Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.
Change your strategy at different points in the season
While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.
If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom).
In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.
Look for value with underdogs
While the bigger names tend to be strong favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system.
Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing years due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.
Follow the narrative
When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.
For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media, and Derrick Rose - who ended up winning MVP - was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.
Research historical trends
Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean.
The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on an elite regular-season team. While the Heisman trophy is almost exclusively given to a quarterback or running back - and over the last couple of decades has been overwhelmingly handed out to QBs.
Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.
Where can I bet on AL and NL Cy Young award odds?
Almost every online sportsbook and casino will provide MLB Cy Young Award futures odds. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what MLB betting odds they currently have available.
