Mets vs Brewers Player Props for Game 3: Best Bets for Jose Quintana, Francisco Lindor & William Contreras

Jose Quintana was lights out to end the regular season, and he'll keep Milwaukee's bats at bay while on the mound in Game 3.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Oct 3, 2024 • 14:06 ET • 4 min read
Jose Quintana New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers square off in the final contest of their three-game NL Wild Card Series tonight.

Playoff baseball tends to bring out the best in star players, and my favorite MLB player props for this showdown back All-Stars Francisco Lindor William Contreras, while also highlighting the dominance of Jose Quintana.

Be sure to also check out our Mets vs. Brewers predictions ahead of opening pitch!

Mets vs Brewers props for Game 3

Today’s best Mets vs Brewers props

Prop bet #1: Jose Quintana Under 2.5 earned runs

-135 at bet365

Jose Quintana enters the postseason with plenty of momentum, having pitched to a sizzling 0.74 ERA with an OBA of .197 over his last six outings.

Quintana faced the Milwaukee Brewers in his final start of the regular season, allowing two runs and fanning a season-high nine batters before getting the hook midway through the fifth inning. The Brewers struggled at the dish during the final month, ranking 28th in the majors in batting average (.219) with an OPS of .658. 

Books have been loath to release pitcher outs props in the postseason due to the short leashes these starters are on. However, shorter stints from pitchers do provide nice opportunities for Unders in other categories as well. That has me taking the Under 2.5 earned runs for Quintana to kick off my MLB picks.

Prop bet #2: Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 RBIs

+200 at FanDuel

Francisco Lindor wrapped up the regular season slashing .273/.344/.500 while leading the New York Mets in runs (107) and RBI (91) in 152 games. The three-time Silver Slugger recipient began the season slow but caught fire during the final two months, slashing .320/.376/.580. 

The Brewers are sending rookie Tobias Myers to the mound for Game 3. Myers posted an impressive 3.00 ERA across 25 starts but his expected ERA is significantly worse at 4.11.

Myers sits in the Bottom 25th percentile in ground ball rate and average exit velocity, which is bad news against a hard hitter like Lindor.

Prop bet #3: William Contreras Over 0.5 walks

-105 at bet365

William Contreras is one of the best hitting catchers in the world, and his eye for the ball (and the intimidation factor from opposing pitchers) has led to plenty of walks. Contreras tied for eighth in the majors with 78 walks in 155 games, and his walk rate (11.5%) ranks in the Top 10th percentile.

Quintana has struggled with control, and his walk rate of 8.8% ticks up to 9.7% against right-handed hitters like Contreras. Likewise, Contreras gets more free passes when he has the platoon advantage, with his walk rate surging to 13.6%.

New York's bullpen also has control issues, with Mets relievers collectively ranking 28th in the majors in walk rate (10.7%). Whether it's a freebie from Quintana or another N.Y. hurler, I like Contreras' chances of getting a free pass tonight. 

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With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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