After Wednesday's victory over the New York Mets, the Milwaukee Brewers forced a winner-take-all Game 3 at American Family Field. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a -126 favorite, while the total is 7.5.
My Mets vs. Brewers prediction is targeting the over, primarily due to these two lineups and how they measure up against the starters.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, October 3.
Mets vs Brewers prediction
Who will win Mets vs Brewers Game 3?
I am optimistic about the Milwaukee Brewers completing the series comeback in front of their home fans to conclude this NL Wild Card Series. However, I don’t love the current -126 price tag, which is why I am targeting the total instead.
My Mets vs Brewers best bet
Over 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The New York Mets turn the ball to left-hander Jose Quintana in this pivotal Game 3. That should be good news for the Brewers, given Quintana’s underlying metrics.
The southpaw ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate. I am specifically concerned about that .259 xBA figure, given that Milwaukee finished the regular season ranked in the Top 8 in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, and OBP.
Subsequently, it shouldn’t be surprising that this current Brewers lineup boasts a .303 AVG, .500 SLG, and .386 wOBA through 79 combined career plate appearances against Quintana.
It could also be catcher William Contreras' time to shine. He was the Brewers' best hitter vs. lefties in the regular season, slashing .313/.402/.486 with a 145 wRC+. While he only had four homers in these matchups, he still filled the basepaths and drove in 24 runs when stepping in against LHP.
Meanwhile, right-hander Tobias Myers takes the mound for Milwaukee.
Like Quintana, Myers’ solid surface-level stats mask a much more concerning analytical profile. The right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and barrel rate.
Myers got away with a lot of barreled baseballs that left the bat at high velocity, and he may not get as lucky against a Mets team that ranks in the Top 10 in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs
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Mets vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 hits
Willy Adames Over 0.5 hits
We are also going to back a couple of Brewers to record hits, which correlates well with the total. Let’s start with Milwaukee’s best player, 20-year-old Jackson Chourio.
He homered twice in Game 2 and boasts a .600 BA, .800 SLG, and .618 wOBA through six plate appearances against Quintana. Meanwhile, Willy Adames also recorded a hit in Game 2.
Adames sports a .357 average, .714 SLG, and .464 wOBA through 15 plate appearances against Quintana, so these two guys should be as good as any to help us surpass this total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Brewers odds
Mets vs Brewers live odds
Mets vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +105 | Milwaukee -125
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-190) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Mets vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -125 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I project this line to widen, given the home-field advantage as well as the upper hand in the starting pitching matchup.
- The total opened at 7.5 and also remains at that number.
Mets vs Brewers trend
There have been eight or more total runs scored in each of this series’ first two games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Brewers.
Mets vs Brewers Game 3 info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Tobias Myers (9-6, 3.00 ERA) |
Mets vs Brewers latest injuries
Mets vs Brewers weather
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