Both division series on the NL side feature Game 3 tonight, and here are my favorite home run props and predictions for your MLB picks ahead of the matchups on Tuesday, Oct. 6.
Find out why I’m backing Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio to go deep.
MLB home run props for today
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Jackson Merrill
Jackson Chourio
Home run prediction: Jackson Merrill
The lone elite-rated hitter on Batters-Box’s ratings today is San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, who enters Game 3 in a great spot to go boom. He draws Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Dustin May, who has been enduring some struggles against left-handed hitters toward the end of the season. Merrill could exploit that in this elimination game.
The last 60 left-handed hitters May has faced own a .441 expected batting average and .833 xSLG, meaning they're creating quality contact. Additionally, May is allowing 2.19 HR/9 and an elevation rate above 60% during that stretch.
Merrill owns a .313 BA this postseason but a sad .665 OPS, and the young star is still looking to record his first extra-base hit. Luckily, he ended the regular season sporting a .630 SLG, along with a 57% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate across his last 60 home at-bats.
With Merrill being the only elite-rated hitter, he offers great value to hit a dinger, especially given how poorly May has been pitching against left-handed batters.
Take this down to 20%.
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
Home run prediction: Jackson Chourio
It's a big day to back guys named Jackson, as we’re also adding Brewers young star Jackson Chourio to the home run card this evening. I was on the fence between him and catcher William Contreras. But I went with Chourio because he was much hotter to end the season, and he's getting the higher matchup rating on Batters-Box.
Chourio closed out the final five regular-season games with a .786 SLG, .722 xSLG, a 50% hard-hit rate, and a near-17% barrel rate. He also owns a .625 SLG, along with a 50% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate so far this postseason.
Take this down to 24%.
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
- HR picks: 135-471, +26.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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