The Los Angeles Dodgers play the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the National League Division Series on Tuesday, Oct. 6.
The series is tied at one game apiece, but our attention is on MLB player props, and plenty are available. Here’s a look at three of my favorite Dodgers vs. Braves prop picks.
The game starts at 6 p.m. ET on FS1 at Atlanta’s Truist Park, and we have the game fully previewed with our MLB picks and Dodgers vs. Braves predictions.
Best Dodgers vs Braves props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Chris Sale Under 7.5 strikeouts |
59% |
 Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases |
35% |
| Michael Harris II Over 1.5 H+R+RBI |
48% |
Prop pick #1: Chris Sale Under 7.5 strikeouts
Chris Sale was the hero of the Wild Card Series for the Atlanta Braves, and the team took a risk and held him out Sunday to get him on the mound with four days' rest for Game 3. The move paid off when Atlanta won a bullpen game, but it’s still not enough rest for the 37-year-old.
This season, Sale had a 6.30 ERA on four days' rest, compared to a sub-2.00 ERA on regular or extra rest. He averaged five innings per start on short rest, down more than an inning from his other outings. His strikeouts per nine were down more than two full Ks, and opponents had more than 125 points higher in OPS.
In the postseason, where short rest is routine, Sale has a 5.83 career ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Expect the Braves to turn to the bullpen earlier than expected and for a subpar day for Sale.
Prop pick #2: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
This will likely drop to closer to 35% once volume picks up. I’d also give strong consideration to going one total base higher if the probability gets to 20% or below.
October is Freddie Freeman time. The 2024 World Series MVP is hitting .429 with 1.357 OPS so far this postseason. That’s nothing new. The NLDS is on pace to be his sixth postseason series since 2020 with an OPS over 1.000 and his sixth with a batting average over .300.
Freeman also does well against Sale. For his career, he has a .313 average and a 1.125 OPS against the left-hander. He also loves playing at his old home park, boasting a career .300 average and a .936 OPS at Truist, and he’s .286/.889 against the Braves since coming to L.A.
Prop pick #3: Michael Harris II Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Once volume picks up, it should push below 50%. I also like going one hit/run/RBI higher if that gets below 30%.
Michael Harris II has been Atlanta’s hottest hitter in the postseason, hitting .400 with a 1.129 OPS. He is tied for the team lead with three extra-base hits in the playoffs this year. Harris went 5-for-8 with two extra-base hits in his last trip to the postseason, two years ago, so this is nothing new for him.
Harris hit .348 with a 137 OPS+ against the Dodgers in the regular season, and he’s .333 against Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Yamamoto will be pitching for the first time since Sept. 23 and could show signs of rust. This season, his ERA was nearly a full run higher (2.85 compared to 2.02) when given extra rest before a start, and he gave up home runs 32% more frequently.
- Top picks: 36-42, +0.96 units
- Over/Under: 49-24, 15.27 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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