Two NLDS games go tonight, and our MLB expert picks have the action covered.
One analyst is taking the Milwaukee Brewers to finish off the San Diego Padres at Petco Park, while we have rare agreement with two others confidently backing the Los Angeles Dodgers with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound on Tuesday, Oct. 6.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: MIL ML |
45% |
 Neil Parker: LAD ML |
50% |
 Joe Osborne: LAD ML |
50% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Brewers moneyline
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
The Milwaukee Brewers are trading at 45% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 49%, giving us enough of an edge to hit the button.
Petco Park has been one of the most electric ballparks this postseason, but Milwaukee's walk-off win over the San Diego Padres with Mason Miller on the mound could be a major momentum swing. Miller is arguably San Diego's biggest weapon in this series, and the Brewers still found a way to win.
Give me Milwaukee to advance to the NLCS.
For an alternate take, check out Ethan Diamandas' Brewers vs. Padres predictions.
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FS1
Neil Parker's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
With two elite pitchers placing a premium on runs in Game 3 of the NLDS, I’m siding with the better offense: the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Los Angeles finished the regular season fifth in wOBA and fourth in ISO against lefties, and second in overall xwOBA in the second half. For comparison, the Atlanta Braves checked in at 11th and eighth in the advanced metrics against righties and 18th in xwOBA after the break.
Of course, Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto limited opposing hitters to a pedestrian .215 wOBA and .084 ISO across six 2025 postseason appearances, and he's also held the Braves to respective .232 and .140 marks over three career starts.
For more from Neil, his full Dodgers vs. Braves predictions include a combo play and a home run prop.
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FS1
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
Yamamoto has appeared in 10 playoff games since joining the Dodgers, and they're a remarkable 9-1 in those games.
I’m not standing in front of that.
This isn’t a coincidence, either, as Yamamoto established himself as a big-game pitcher with a ridiculous 1.45 ERA in 37 1/3 innings during last season’s playoff run.
Chris Sale, on the other hand, has an extremely spotty postseason history, posting a bloated 5.83 ERA in 12 appearances. With the Dodgers desperate to respond after losing Game 2, I’ll happily back Yamamoto and that near-perfect trend at a fair price of 51%.
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FS1
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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