The San Diego Padres could be headed to Cancun with a loss in tonight's Game 3 of the NLDS, while the Milwaukee Brewers could punch their ticket to the NLCS with a win.
I’ve found three of my favorite looks for my Brewers vs. Padres props.
Before you dive in be sure to check out the rest of my plays, our MLB picks, and Brewers vs. Padres predictions for Tuesday, Oct. 6.
Best Brewers vs Padres props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Dustin May Over 1.5 earned runs |
44% |
 Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
49% |
| William Contreras Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
47% |
Prop pick #1: Dustin May Over 1.5 earned runs
The San Diego Padres have to come out firing this evening, as they are a game away from scheduling their offseason vacation plans. Luckily for them, they draw Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Dustin May, who hasn't been the sexiest arm in the Brewers’ starting rotation.
The veteran redhead posted an 8.59 ERA and 6.69 xERA over his final three regular-season starts, while allowing a nearly 43% hard-hit rate and a 20% barrel rate to opposing hitters. Those hitters also tallied a near 67% elevation rate, along with a .603 expected slugging percentage and a .409 xwOBA.
May’s leash may not be very long, especially with the price tag attached. The Padres’ first-five team total is 1.5 runs, with the Over priced around 60%, which is what I took. So, if you're willing to take the plus-money price, go this route.
Either way, May will get lit up early, as the Padres get their spark early against the struggling right-hander.
Take this to 45%, or take the first five team total Over.
Prop pick #2: Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 hits + runs +RBI
With a 55.07% hit rate with an elite rating over the last three seasons, per Batters-Box, snagging Jackson Merrill hits, runs, and RBI prop at below 50% is well worth the squeeze against May.
The last 60 left-handed hitters May has faced haven't made much hard contact, but they own a .441 expected batting average and .833 xSLG, meaning they are still generating quality contact. On top of that, May is allowing 2.19 HR/9 and an elevation rate above 60% during that stretch.
Merrill owns a .313 batting average and a .353 OBP this postseason. Luckily, he ended the regular season sporting a .630 SLG, along with a 57% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate over his last 60 at-bats at home.
With the Padres needing a spark, Merrill is poised to be that guy.
Take this down to 52%.
Prop pick #3: William Contreras Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Brewers catcher William Contreras kept popping up during my research, and rightfully so. The star catcher not only ended the regular season hot but came into October looking to help take his team to the promised land.
In his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he posted a .556 SLG and .278 ISO, while producing a nearly 50% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate. Through the Brewers' first two postseason games, he owns a .571 SLG and .428 ISO, with a 66.7% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
Padres starter Nick Pivetta was worse against right-handed hitters than against lefties in 2026 and has carried that into the postseason, allowing plenty of hard-hit and elevated balls. If Contreras connects, he could find the bleachers.
Take this down to 50%.
- Prop picks: 548-1101, +2.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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