Mets vs Brewers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Peralta Goes Over Strikeout Number

Freddy Peralta is healthy again and ready to kick off a new campaign against a Mets lineup that contains a handful of swing-and-miss guys. As such, our MLB betting picks are going Over his strikeout total in Milwaukee's home opener Monday night.

Apr 3, 2023 • 08:47 ET • 4 min read
Freddy Peralta Milwaukee Brewers MLB
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Kicking off Monday afternoon’s MLB slate is the home opener for the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers, who host the NL East’s New York Mets on MLB Network.

Both clubs won their season-opening series and now Milwaukee sits as a -126 favorite as it looks to start the homestand on a high note.

Will the Brewers take care of business on their home diamond, or can the Mets pull off the upset on the road? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Brewers below.

Mets vs Brewers odds

Mets vs Brewers predictions

Taking the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers in this contest is right-hander Freddy Peralta. Rounding out the core of Milwaukee’s rotation, Peralta is perhaps one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the National League.

While he battled injuries throughout the majority of last season, Peralta looks to start the year in good form now that he's fully healthy once again. Despite dealing with those injuries, 2022 marked the fifth straight season that he posted a K% north of 27%, which speaks to his incredible ability to retire hitters via the punchout.

Those five seasons make up the entirety of his MLB career thus far, and we're going to back this consistent ability to rack up strikeouts. At FanDuel, Peralta’s strikeout prop can be found as low as 3.5, and we're going to take the Over.

While only two of the four starting pitchers to face the New York Mets have gone Over this number, there's reason to believe Peralta will have no issues doing so. In his lone career start against New York, Peralta racked up five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings en route to Milwaukee’s 8-4 victory.

Across 46 career plate appearances against Peralta, this current Mets roster possesses an astounding 37 K% and 43.5 Whiff%. Although New York’s lineup is stacked from top to bottom, it still features multiple guys who are especially vulnerable to the strikeout.

Daniel Vogelbach, Eduardo Escobar, and Tomas Nido all possessed a K% north of 23% in 2022. It makes sense why Peralta’s strikeout prop is set low in this contest, especially considering New York’s stellar lineup that typically avoids striking out.

However, the total at 3.5 is an over-adjustment to that fact. Not only does this current Mets lineup possess a lifetime 37 K% against Peralta, but the right-hander went over this number quite consistently in 2022 before his nagging injuries plagued the final two months of his season.

My best bet: Freddy Peralta Over 3.5 strikeouts (-150)

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Mets vs Brewers moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Brewers on the moneyline in this contest, but would rather just back Peralta than mix in Milwaukee’s untrustworthy lineup into the equation. The Brewers’ biggest edge in this contest is the starting pitching, which is the only reason they're favored.

On the other side, right-hander Carlos Carrasco is slated to take the mound for the Mets. Currently in his mid-30s, Carrasco is entering the final downswing in his career.

With father time rearing his ugly head, Carrasco has posted an xERA north of 4.07 in three of his last four seasons. In 2022, Carrasco ranked in the 39th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG.

However, Milwaukee possesses a wildly inconsistent lineup that is inferior in this matchup, which is why I'm staying away from the moneyline.

Mets vs Brewers Over/Under analysis

I would also lean towards the Under in this contest but don't feel confident one way or the other. On the one hand, I firmly trust Peralta to take care of business.

In 2022, the right-hander ranked in the 90th percentile or higher in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. Not only are those utterly dominating metrics, but it's even more impressive considering the nagging injuries during the final two months of the campaign.

With that said, Peralta is going against a more-than-competent lineup in New York. On the other hand, I don't trust the declining Carrasco, even though he's facing an equally untrustworthy Brewers lineup.

Considering these dynamics, I would rather just back Peralta than pick either side of this total.

Mets vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Monday, April 3, 2023
First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, SportsNet New York

Mets vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The veteran right-hander's best days are long behind him, posting an xERA north of 4.07 in three of his last four seasons. There are also some concerns with Carrasco’s elbow, which is why he was scratched from his start earlier this week before throwing 70 pitches in a minor league game. Reports indicate that the club is not too concerned about the elbow moving forward, but anytime a regressing pitcher in his mid-30s starts to have elbow trouble, it is worth monitoring. 

Freddy Peralta (0-0, 0.00 ERA): There are essentially no flaws in Peralta’s pitching ability. While health was an issue last season, his excellent Spring Training suggests he's fully back and ready to roll. To be fair, Spring Training results mean absolutely nothing in terms of talent, but they demonstrated that his health is back, which was the main question for him to begin this season.

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To start 2022, Peralta recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his first seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Brewers


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