MLB Picks

It’ll be tough for the New York Yankees to get going against Jake Bennett, who sits in the 97th percentile in xERA through the first handful of starts in his career.

Gerrit Cole has not been his dominant self, ranking in the 52nd percentile in Pitcher Run Value and allowing 13 runs over his past four starts.

Back the Boston Red Sox to -110.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Isaac Paredes will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game.. Batters such as Isaac Paredes with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Nathan Lukes has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 26% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. The #5 stadium in baseball for suppressing batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers.. Nathan Lukes's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.7-mph average last year has lowered to 86.9-mph.

Chase Burns is averaging 10.7 Ks per nine innings, with 7+ strikeouts in his last seven starts.

Burns has finished off the majority of his strikeouts with his slider, while the Pirates have gone down swinging to that pitch 214 times - the fourth-most instances among all clubs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as MLB's 15th-best home run batter.. Colson Montgomery is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. The #7 park in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Batting from the opposite that Michael Wacha throws from, Colson Montgomery will have the upper hand today.. Colson Montgomery pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 11th-best batter in MLB.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Citi Field projects as the #8 stadium in the league for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 19th-best batter in MLB.. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Ketel Marte pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Curtis Mead ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Curtis Mead is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in baseball for run-scoring.. Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's centerfield fences are the 4th-shallowest.. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Kyle Harrison’s numbers have dipped over the last month but his process remains elite. He has posted a sparkling 3.12 xFIP and 31 K%.

While the Chicago Cubs have hit lefties well in June, they rank 19th in average and 23rd in ISO since May 1.

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a much better spot against David Peterson, who ranks in the fifth percentile in Pitcher Run Value.

Back Milwaukee up to -185.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 10th-best batter in the league when assessing his batting average talent.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Progressive Field projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humidity on the slate (76%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tristan Gray in the 4th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Tristan Gray is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.. When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Tristan Gray has been pulled from the game early 20% of the time.. In the majors, Target Field's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-deepest.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for mound aces.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Jordan Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

It’ll be very difficult to string together hits against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the San Diego Padres lack power for quick-strike offense.

The Dodgers are missing a couple of key bats in Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith. They’re also playing in a pitcher-friendly park, which will lower their offensive floor and ceiling.

I see this being a 5-2 type of game, and would play the Under to -120.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 19.2-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Mike Yastrzemski will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Webb in today's game.. Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Mike Yastrzemski are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mike Yastrzemski's true offensive talent to be a .320, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .024 deviation between that figure and his actual .296 wOBA.

Shea Langeliers projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Shea Langeliers will have the handedness advantage against Reid Detmers in today's matchup.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense projects as the weakest out of every team on the slate today.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.