The fourth and final game of this National League series gets underway on Thursday with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Miami Marlins.
Milwaukee won two of the first three contests against Miami and will look to gain another game on the Cubs in the NL Central race. Will the Brewers take care of business once again, or can the Marlins play spoiler on the road?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Marlins vs. Brewers on September 14.
Marlins vs Brewers odds
Marlins vs Brewers predictions
Right-hander Adrian Houser returns to the mound on Thursday and should be a good fade candidate. Missing the past few weeks due to elbow swelling, it would not be shocking if the Milwaukee Brewers right-hander is on a pitch count in this contest, which should bode well for his Unders.
But, even if manager Craig Counsell lets him go as long as possible, a tough outing may be in-store. Through 19 appearances on the mound this season, Houser possesses a fade-worthy 4.58 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
Houser's underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 22nd percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, and Hard-Hit%. Houser also ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in Chase%, Whiff%, and K%. That is the avenue in which we will fade the right-hander in this contest.
The Miami Marlins do not boast the most intimidating lineup, but they are excellent at making contact and avoiding strikeouts. Currently, Miami ranks in the Top 10 of the league in hits per game, BA, and K%.
Looking at Thursday’s projected starting lineup, five of the Marlins’ nine hitters boast a K% south of 22% this year. This success in avoiding strikeouts is likely to continue against Houser — a pitcher whom this current lineup possesses a mere 16.7 K% and 17.1 Whiff% against through 42 career plate appearances.
My best bet: Adrian Houser Under 3.5 strikeouts (-115)
Marlins vs Brewers same-game parlay
Adrian Houser Under 35.5 strikeouts (-122)
Over 8 (-105)
Marlins ML (-108)
Not only should Houser serve as a solid fade candidate in this matchup, but right-hander Eury Perez may also struggle for Miami. The rookie's surface-level stats are amazing this season, posting a 5-4 record with a 2.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
However, his 3.72 xERA suggests that regression is looming. This expected regression could come to fruition against a Brewers lineup that is averaging nearly six runs scored over their past eight games.
With that said, even Perez’s expected regression still puts him above Houser in practically every single surface-level stat and analytic. Add to the fact that the Marlins rank higher than Milwaukee in hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS, and we could see them take care of business on the road in a high-scoring affair.
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Marlins vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Marlins opened as a slight –112 favorite and were bet down to their current price of -104. This small line movement is not all that surprising given that, as a whole, Milwaukee is the better ball club and is playing a big game at home as it looks to continue to fend off the Cubs in the NL Central race.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 8.5 and has since been bet down to eight. The market respects Perez and his tremendous surface-level stats, although I would argue his underlying metrics suggest that his smaller 83-inning sample size is not enough to justify this low of a total in a matchup against Houser.
There have now been eight or more total runs scored in seven of Milwaukee’s past 12 games and in nine of Miami’s past 12.
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The Marlins have hit the moneyline in nine of their past 13 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Brewers
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Marlins vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Thursday, September 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
Starting pitchers
Eury Perez (5-4, 2.90 ERA): It has been a strong rookie campaign for Perez, but his 3.72 xERA suggests that regression is looming. He has put together strong performances, but he has also shown that he can get rocked as he gave up six runs in less than one inning against the Braves and allowed four runs on less than five innings of work against both the Yankees and Reds.
Adrian Houser (5-4, 4.58 ERA): Houser returns from a multiple-week absence due to elbow swelling. There are multiple reasons to believe he will stay Under his strikeout prop in this contest, whether it be his poor stats/analytics, likely pitch count, or Miami’s strong strikeout avoidance.
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