George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners will look to build on their four-game winning streak when they visit the Detroit Tigers tonight.
The Mariners (63-56) are just a half-game back of the Houston Astros in the AL West, but come in as slight underdogs in the MLB odds against the Tigers (56-63) and ace Tarik Skubal.
Despite tonight’s matchup of All-Star pitchers, my Mariners vs. Tigers predictions expect the full game Over to cash in our MLB picks for Tuesday, August 13.
Mariners vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Over 7 (+100 at Caesars)
My analysis
When two top pitchers face off against lineups without a lot of pop, oddsmakers are inclined to offer very low totals on MLB games — even if it’s unrealistic to expect the games to regularly come in Under that total. That’s the case tonight, where Tarik Skubal faces off against George Kirby in a game that should feature some excellent pitching, but not enough to justify the total that’s been placed on the contest.
Skubal is a strong contender for the American League Cy Young Award, going 13-4 with a league-best 2.57 ERA so far this season. The Detroit Tigers southpaw leads the AL in strikeouts, has a 2.68 FIP, and is throwing to a 0.935 WHIP.
Yet, none of this means that Detroit’s ace is unhittable. Over his last five starts, Skubal has given up four homers, and his ERA is a much more human 3.24.
Meanwhile, Kirby has emerged as one of the best control pitchers in the majors, allowing just one walk per nine innings for the Seattle Mariners this year. However, in his last two starts, he’s lasted a total of just 10 1/3 innings, allowing five runs on 14 hits over that stretch.
It’s not as though either of these pitchers is in line to be rocked by the opposition, but we do need to keep things in perspective. Kirby and Skubal faced off just six days ago, and the result was a 6-2 win for Detroit.
That’s about the average result we can expect from these two teams and pitchers, who both frequently play in games with totals of eight runs or more. The consensus total is now up to a flat seven, but with a premium on the Over, that number is still far too low not to jump on.
Mariners vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7
Tigers moneyline
Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 strikeouts
I’m taking a shot at a big payout on my same-game parlay tonight, as I’m taking the Over but pairing it with a strong pitching performance. Let’s take the Tigers to win behind Skubal, who has been among the most reliable pitchers in the majors this year.
The value comes from picking Skubal to pick up Over 7.5 strikeouts tonight, which carries a negative correlation with the game total Over. However, Skubal has hit this mark in five of his last six games, including his August 2 start against Kansas City where he was shelled for five runs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mariners vs Tigers odds
Mariners vs Tigers live odds
Mariners vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+170) | Detroit +1.5 (-205)
- Moneyline: Seattle -110 | Detroit -110
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)
Mariners vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both teams have struggled on the moneyline this year. The Mariners have dropped three units for backers, and the Tigers are down nearly seven units on the season.
- Detroit is 15-8 when Skubal starts, while Seattle is 10-14 in games where Kirby takes the hill.
- The Tigers have hit the game total Over in 57 of their last 102 contests (+10.95 Units / 10% ROI).
- The Mariners have hit the game total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI).
Mariners vs Tigers trend
The Tigers have played to totals of eight runs or more in each of Skubal’s last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Tigers.
Mariners vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, Bally Sports Detroit |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (8-8, 3.13 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Tarik Skubal (13-4, 2.57 ERA) |
Mariners vs Tigers latest injuries
Mariners vs Tigers weather
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