It's a getaway Wednesday, and there are a pair of +EV home-run props at +500 or better that I already have in the account before noon. Can we get both players to hit dinger No. 1 this afternoon as we take advantage of the MLB player prop markets?
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, April 1.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick
Best MLB home run props today
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Shohei Ohtani
Taylor Ward
Alejandro Kirk
Shohei Ohtani (+230)
Gavin Williams has been tougher on lefties in terms of limiting average, but they’ve actually taken him deep at a higher rate than right-handed hitters since 2024.
That brings Los Angeles Dodgers leadoff man Shohei Ohtani squarely into play. He could see five plate appearances and, despite not going deep yet this season, it's coming soon.
If you’re targeting a late home run prop, Dodger Stadium is the clear spot. Double-digit winds are blowing out to right-center — right into Shohei Ohtani territory — while Kansas City is dealing with potential rain and winds blowing in.
It’s a square look, with some books pricing this as low as +170, but there’s still value at +230. On a thinner Wednesday night board, Ohtani is the best power target to go yard.
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, SNLA
Taylor Ward (+500)
Taylor Ward brings legit 36-homer power to the leadoff spot for the Baltimore Orioles, giving him a strong chance at five plate appearances this afternoon.
He faces Nathan Eovaldi, a familiar matchup with 20 career at-bats against him. Eovaldi allowed two home runs in his first start and projects to go Over his 2.5 earned runs prop, according to THE BAT, which makes Ward’s HR price around +425.
Ward hasn’t gone deep yet, but he’s coming off a four-hit game, carrying a 49% fly-ball rate, and gets ideal conditions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards with 80-degree weather and wind blowing out to center.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Rangers Sports Network
Alejandro Kirk (+540)
Alejandro Kirk slots into the five-hole today and is priced at +520, the fourth-longest HR odds among Toronto Blue Jays starters — a strong buy point for the afternoon slate.
He gets a favorable matchup against Kyle Freeland, a soft-tossing lefty, along with a weak Colorado Rockies bullpen that Toronto has already seen for two straight games.
He might be struggling at the dish out of the gates, but he will have plenty of contact vs. Freeland, who does not miss bats. He'll also stay in the entire game and could see five plate appearances today if the Jays get hot.
I like him at this price and in this matchup better than Davis Schneider, Jesus Sanchez, and Kazuma Okamoto, who are all at least 120 points shorter than Thick Jesus.
- Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 1-5, +0.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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