Casey Mize has been a detriment to San Diego since coming over at the deadline - I'm fading him on the road as part of my Padres vs. Rays prediction.
The Tampa Bay Rays host the San Diego Padres as 56-cent favorites at Polymarket, and I'm all over this value with Shane McClanahan on the mound.
Let's get right into my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 28, and fatten our wallet, shall we?
Who will win Padres vs Rays today: Rays (56%)
Casey Mize hasn't quite been the deadline acquisition the San Diego Padres hoped he'd be, rocking a 7.00 ERA since being dealt from the Detroit Tigers.
He allowed eight earned runs in his first start and is coming off an outing where he didn't make it out of the third inning, coughing up four earned runs on three home runs. It doesn't get any easier against Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bay Rays' offense, which owns a .340 xBA against him across 31 plate appearances.
The Big Three (Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero) are a combined 6-for-10 against him in their career - we might see another quick exit here. I'd play this up to 59 cents at Polymarket.
COVERS INTEL: McClanahan has absolutely dominated this Padres lineup over the course of his career, limiting them to a .170 xBA, .214 xwOBA, and .231 xSLG across 66 plate appearances, all while striking them out at a 28% clip. That'll work for us today.
Padres vs Rays Over/Under pick: Pick Over 7.5 Runs (48%)
With Mize's issues, the Rays may not have any issues going over this total by themselves, coming into tonight with the sixth-highest team wRC+. Tampa is just a scrappy team that plays good, fundamental baseball, and if there is traffic on the base paths tonight, look for the fourth-best hitting team with RISP to cash them in.
I'd play this one up to 51 cents at Polymarket.
Padres vs Rays home run prediction: Junior Caminero (24%)
At 24 cents, I absolutely love this play for Caminero to go yard. With 35 homers, the All-Star is having the best campaign of his career, and has already logged a home run against Mize (2-for-4, HR, .665 xSLG).
He's seeing the ball well, too, owning two consecutive multiple-hit games coming into tonight.
With his hard-hit rate sitting at an astronomical 50.5%, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt to hit a bomb against a struggling pitcher.
- ML/RL bets: 5-9, -2.50 units
- Over/Under bets: 6-8, -2.66 units
Padres vs Rays weather
Tropicana Field is a dome, so the weather won't impact game conditions tonight.
Padres vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Padres 44% | Rays 56%
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (64%) | Rays -1.5 (36%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)
Padres vs Rays trend
The Rays are 6-1 in their last seven overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Rays.
How to watch Padres vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida |
| Date | Friday, August 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays.TV/Padres.TV |
| Padres starting pitcher | Casey Mize (5-7, 3.44 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Shane McLanahan (9-6, 3.10 ERA) |
Padres vs Rays latest injuries
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