The weekend is HERE! Let's kick it off with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight's MLB slate.
I am in love with a few Braves and a Ray to leave the yard this evening and get our weekend off and running.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 28.
MLB home run props for today
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Drake Baldwin
Junior Caminero
Home run prediction: Drake Baldwin (20%)
The second-highest-rated hitter in this matchup happens to be Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin. Full transparency, today’s player prop picks feature Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 earned runs.
We are expecting an offensive explosion from the Braves, and here is how that prop will cash, starting with these two hitters.
Baldwin has been one of the hottest hitters in this lineup. In his last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher, he sports a .607 SLG, .940 OPS, and .321 ISO, while generating over 63% hard-hit rate and a 21.1% barrel rate.
In 18 elite ratings this season on Batters-Box, Baldwin has hit a home run 22.22% of the time. He also has a 91.2% arsenal coverage against Sugano’s pitch mix.
With Sugano owning the worst pitcher rating on the slate, there is no reason to be worried about backing two guys from the same team this evening.
The Sugano tax is real, so try to get a similar number.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Rockies.TV
Home run prediction: Junior Caminero (29%)
Try to name a guy more due for a long ball than Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero; you can't.
The third baseman has not left the yard since August 11 against the Athletics, and he has since gone on a 14-game homerless streak.
Across his last 10 batted balls, six of them have left the bat at 102 MPH or more, while seven have left the bat at least 91 MPH.
Caminero enters as the highest-rated hitter in this matchup against San Diego Padres right-hander Casey Mize. Through 57 elite ratings in his young career, Caminero has left the yard almost 25% of the time.
Mize has struggled against right-handed hitters in his recent starts.
The last 30 he has faced are generating nearly 50% hard-hit, 20% barrel, and a 75.6% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .349 xBA, .668 xSLG, and .245 ISO.
Find the best number you can; the +250 range is the limit.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Padres.TV
- HR picks: 111-386, +19.3 units
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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