Friday has arrived, and we have a 15-game MLB slate in front of us this evening.
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for today's small slate, featuring some underdogs in great spots on Friday, Aug. 28.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out our MLB picks to see where our expert sees value!
MLB moneyline picks for August 28
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 CINvs  CHC |
64% |
 LADvs  DET |
36% |
 MIAvs  WSH |
59% |
 KCvs  CLE |
45% |
 HOUvs  NYM |
50% |
 SDvs  TB |
55% |
 SEAvs  TOR |
58% |
 COLvs  ATL |
68% |
 BOSvs  NYY |
58% |
 TEXvs  MIL |
34% |
 CWSvs  MIN |
55% |
 PITvs  STL |
48% |
 PHIvs  LAA |
55% |
 BALvs  ATH |
49% |
 AZvs  SF |
48% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-28.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 28
Reds vs Cubs: Cubs (64%)
Cubs win probability: 64%
David Peterson has been good enough in his last five starts to gain some trust to hold down one of the most inconsistent lineups in baseball. The Cubs southpaw sports a 2.66 ERA while holding opponents to a 4% barrel rate during that stretch.
Chicago's bats have been on fire for weeks now, and there is no reason to get in the way of them now.
Dodgers vs Tigers: Tigers (36%)
Tigers win probability: 36%
If the Dodgers are going to abuse Tarik Skubal like a used car, let them. Everyone will be calling this a revenge game for the former Tiger, but I see the Tigers entering with a chip on their shoulder this evening.
A "we do not need you" moment for Detroit. Plus, the Dodgers' offense lately has been pretty lifeless. Over their last six games, they have posted just an 84 wRC+ and 2% barrel rate.
It's Friday, take the dog.
Marlins vs Nationals: Marlins (59%)
Marlins win probability: 59%
Marlins right-hander Eury Pérez has been lights out this season. Most importantly, over his last three starts, he has posted a 0.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while giving up just a 2.38% barrel rate. Which is great, because the Nationals have not been making hard contact or barreling the baseball over their last six games.
A bit pricey, but Pérez is on another planet right now.
Royals vs Guardians: Royals (45%)
Royals win probability: 45%
Michael Wacha is not in a great spot this evening against a Guardians offense that is seeing the ball very well at the moment. However, the planet the Royals offense is on at the moment is not the same.
Over Kansas City's last 12 games, they own a 130 wRC+, .359 wOBA, and .813 OPS. Snagging the white-hot Royals right now at near +120 is the move.
Astros vs Mets: Astros (50%)
Astros win probability: 50%
Fully expecting Christian Scott to get lit up in this spot this evening. His current numbers and underlying metrics over his last three games have been brutal, with a 6.60 ERA, 4.38 xERA, and 1.60 WHIP. All while allowing nearly a 12% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The Houston Astros have been making a ton of hard contact this week while sporting a .758 OPS and sub-2.00 ISO. Meanwhile, the Mets over that stretch have just a league-average 100 wRC+, .150 ISO, and .704 OPS.
Astros or nothing.
Padres vs Rays: Rays (55%)
Rays win probability: 55%
Not the sexiest price for a team that has not been too hot at the dish, but the Tampa Bay Rays should be just fine against Casey Mize. The Padres right-hander has been getting lit up by right-handed hitters over his most recent outings. Sure, right-handed bats are scarce, but their best bats come from the right side of the plate.
Mize's last 60 hitters faced are generating nearly 50% hard-hit, 20% barrel, and 75.6% elevation. Those hitters also own a .349 xBA, .668 xSLG, and .245 ISO.
The top of the Rays' lineup should take care of Mize early. Rays.
Mariners vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (58%)
Blue Jays win probability: 58%
After an embarrassing 13-2 loss to the Royals last night, we can only hope this Blue Jays team wakes up with the biggest chip on their shoulders, looking to get back in the win column. Toronto sends out its ace, Dylan Cease, who has been nails all season long. He draws a Seattle lineup that owns a .300 wOBA, .664 OPS, and 25.4% strikeout rate.
With Cease owning a strikeout rate above 34% over his last five starts and at home this season, he should propel this team to a much-needed win.
Rockies vs Braves: Braves (68%)
Braves win probability: 68%
Braves or nothing.
Colorado Rockies seasoned sophomore right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano owns the worst pitcher rating on the day over on Batters-Box, where he draws seven elite-rated bats and two with strong ratings. Sugano is horrible, and the Rockies give him a very long leash. This could get ugly fast for the Rockies.
Red Sox vs Yankees: Yankees (58%)
Yankees win probability: 58%
Patrick Sandoval has been awful in his eight starts this season. He has been far worse on the road, where he owns a 5.59 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. The Yankees' bats have awakened and are generating a ton of hard-hit and barreled balls over their last 12 games.
Plus, AL Cy Young hopeful Cam Schlittler is on the mound for the Bronx Bombers. New York should come to play.
Rangers vs Brewers: Rangers (34%)
Rangers win probability: 34%
Despite being tormented by the White Sox this week, the Rangers' offensive production has been elite. In their last six games, they have a 137 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .838 OPS, and .203 ISO. They also racked up 22 runs over their last three games.
The Brewers send out Logan Henderson, who has been lights out, but at home he is allowing over 47% hard-hit and a 10.26% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
At +188, the Rangers are worth the risk.
White Sox vs Twins: Twins (55%)
Twins win probability: 55%
Is it too insane to say that after scoring 23 runs in three games, the White Sox are due to regress? They are one of the youngest and most exciting teams in baseball. They will either ride this wave into the shore, or it will come crashing down.
With how well Dean Kremer has been pitching in his last few starts, he should be able to bring the South Siders back to earth.
Pirates vs Cardinals: Cardinals (48%)
Cardinals win probability: 48%
Give me the dog here; with how bland both teams' offenses have been, paying juice in this matchup is not worth it here.
Plus, Quinn Matthews has some strong underlying metrics in his first three starts. He should be worth trusting in his first home start.
Phillies vs Angels: Phillies (55%)
Phillies win probability: 55%
Angels southpaw Reid Detmers has been on a tear in his last five starts and at home this season. However, there is nothing to love about the Angels' offense, which is why the Phillies are my lean at $1.21.
Right-hander Andrew Painter has some strong underlying metrics in his last five outings, posting a 3.57 xERA, 1.06 WHIP, and just a 5.48% barrel rate. Plus, the Phillies' lineup has been hitting far better than the Angels. Pay the juice here.
Orioles vs Athletics: Athletics (49%)
Athletics win probability: 49%
Finding it very hard to find the answers on why the Athletics are underdogs in this spot. Sure, their offense has been on fire all week. However, sending out Brandon Young, who owns a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.
Jacob Lopez on the other side has been nails: 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 31% strikeout rate in his last five.
Dog or nothing here, leaning toward better pitching.
Diamondbacks vs Giants: Giants (48%)
Giants win probability: 48%
Giants or nothing here, as Diamondbacks left-hander Kohl Drake sports a 5.40 ERA, 7.54 xERA, and 1.56 WHIP this year. He is catching the Giants at a bad time because they have been on fire this past week. Over their last six games, San Francisco owns a 130 wRC+, .353 wOBA, and .803 OPS.
Getting white-hot offense against a struggling arm at plus-money, yes, please!!!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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