The Minnesota Twins head into tonight's series opener against the Chicago White Sox as a slim 52% home favorite.
With Chicago starter Luis Castillo in horrendous form, I'm backing Minnesota in my White Sox vs. Twins predictions.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 28.
Who will win White Sox vs Twins today: Twins (56%)
Luis Castillo is getting hit hard right now. The Chicago White Sox right-hander owns a 9.90 FIP over his last two starts while allowing 4.91 HR/9. No, that’s not a typo.
The Minnesota Twins are not in elite offensive form, but they have been solid at home, posting a 105 wRC+. This matchup against Castillo gives them a clear opportunity to put runs on the board early.
Dean Kremer, meanwhile, owns a 4.87 FIP over his previous two appearances. The White Sox are hot offensively, but Kremer has been excellent at home this season with a 2.86 FIP.
I don’t expect Kremer to be perfect, but he's much more reliable than Castillo right now.
Play to 58%.
COVERS INTEL: Castillo hasn't traveled well since joining Chicago, posting a 6.89 road FIP. At home, he's been better with a 4.02 FIP. 
White Sox vs Twins Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (54%)
Chicago is averaging six runs per game over the last week, and Kremer has definitely shown vulnerability at times. The Twins’ bullpen isn’t untouchable either, posting a 6.01 FIP over its last 13 1/3 frames.
Minnesota is also averaging 4.47 runs per contest at Target Field, and Castillo is making a ton of mistakes, giving the Twins a clear path to offense. Additionally, the White Sox relief corps owns a 4.93 xERA over the last week while showing long-ball issues.
This profiles as a high-scoring matchup in Minneapolis.
Play to 60%.
White Sox vs Twins home run prediction: Miguel Vargas (17%)
Miguel Vargas has just one bomb in the last week, but he's hitting .529 during that span with a 14.3% barrel rate. Vargas has put 42.9% of his contact in the air, and Kremer has allowed 1.69 HR/9 in his last two outings.
Minnesota's pen has also given up 1.98 HR/9 in the last week, giving Vargas another path to leaving the yard. They're also giving up a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate.
Vargas's power plays on the road as well, smacking 14 of his 29 homers away from Rate Field.
Play to 20%.
- ML/RL bets: 60-70, -18.50 units
- Over/Under bets: 71-55, +4.90 units
White Sox vs Twins weather
Weather at Target Field looks playable tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 82°F to 76°F. Winds are light-to-moderate, increasing from 6 mph to 9 mph, and rain chances stay low at 3–9%. No major delay concern, with only a slight late shower risk.
White Sox vs Twins odds
- Moneyline: White Sox 49% | Twins 52%
- Run line: White Sox -1.5 (38%) | Twins +1.5 (63%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (53%) | Under 8.5 (48%)
White Sox vs Twins trend
The Twins are 4-1 in their last five home games. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Twins.
How to watch White Sox vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Friday, Aug. 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CHSN, Twins.TV |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Luis Castillo (4-10, 5.19 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Dean Kremer (2-4, 5.22 ERA) |
White Sox vs Twins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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