The weekend has arrived, and so have our MLB expert picks!
See why the Covers team is calling for the Yankees to kick off a key weekend series with the Red Sox on a winning note this Friday, Aug. 28.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Dustin Saracini: TB ML |
56% |
 Jon Metler: NYY ML |
61% |
 Robert Criscola: MIA/WSH o8.5 |
49% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Dustin Saracini' expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
Casey Mize hasn't quite been the deadline acquisition the Padres hoped he'd be, rocking a 7.00 ERA since making his way from Detroit to San Diego. He allowed eight earned runs in his first start and is coming off an outing where he didn't make it out of the third inning, coughing up four earned runs on three home runs.
It doesn't get any easier against the Rays' offense, which owns a .340 xBA against him across 31 plate appearances. Their "big three" (Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero) are a combined 6-for-10 against him in their career, so we might see another quick exit here.
I'd play this up to 59 cents at Polymarket.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Padres.TV, Rays.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Yankees moneyline
Price: 61¢ at Polymarket
The Red Sox thrive on putting pressure on opposing teams with their speed and aggressive baserunning, but Cam Schlittler's quick slide-step delivery should help neutralize Boston's running game. That, combined with his ability to tunnel his cutter off his four-seam fastball, sets up a difficult matchup for the Red Sox offense.
The bottom of Boston's lineup, including Mickey Gasper and Andruw Monasterio, could have a particularly tough time handling Schlittler's velocity. He can attack the top of the zone with his four-seamer before using his off-speed stuff to finish hitters with two strikes. If Schlittler can stay aggressive against the bottom of the order, he should be able to keep his pitch count under control and work deep into the game.
The Yankees are trading at 61 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 64-cent favorite, which is why I'm hitting the button.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Apple TV
Robert Criscola's expert pick: Marlins/Nationals Over 8.5
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
Eury Perez labored through five innings and 100 pitches vs. the Nationals just last week (three hits and three walks allowed), and this potent Washington lineup (third by OPS) should have the upper hand seeing him again so quickly.
Meanwhile, it's been a rough go for Jackson Kent, registering an 8.03 ERA over his first three starts. The Marlins tagged him for three runs over 4 2/3 frames last Sunday.
Throw in two bullpens that rank in the bottom third by xFIP over the last two weeks, and you've got a recipe for an Over. Play to 52%.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Marlins.TV, Nationals.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| CIN/CHC o8.5 | 50% |
| Read analysis in our Reds vs. Cubs predictions | |
| MIL -1.5 | 44% |
| Read analysis in our Rangers vs. Brewers predictions | |
| MIN ML | 56% |
| Read analysis in our White Sox vs. Twins predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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