Brad Powers’ power ratings have determined that Stanford is offering the best value of the Week Zero slate.
Each week during the season, I’ll give you my three favorite college football picks of the week consisting of sides, totals, and derivatives.
In addition, starting next week, I’ll also be going over my biggest power ratings adjustments from the week prior and the best spot bets.
Unlike a typical week when there’s 50 games to choose from, this week’s slate only features eight games and the lines have been posted for months. Still, I think there’s some value on these three games.
Brad Powers' top college football picks for Week 0
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Stanford -3.5 |
52% |
 / San Jose State/USC Over 60.5 |
51% |
 / New Mexico State/Florida State Over 53.5 |
51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Hawaii vs Stanford: Stanford -3.5
My power ratings make Stanford a 6-point favorite, and this is the only game this week where my ratings have a disparity of more than 1.5 points from the spread.
Last year’s meeting between the two teams saw Stanford lead 10-0 early on the road. The Cardinal still led 20-17 in the fourth quarter and were deep in Hawaii territory, but an interception changed momentum. Hawaii got two late field goals to win 23-20.
I bring up last year’s game because I thought Stanford was the better team (outrushed Hawaii 177-96) and should have won. Now the Cardinal go from a long flight to hosting Hawaii with revenge.
On top of that, Stanford is the much more experienced team this year. The Cardinal return 12 starters, while Hawaii returns only seven. Stanford ranks No. 36 in Bill Connelly’s returning production, while Hawaii is only No. 98. Stanford is the better and more experienced team. They're also at home with the revenge angle.
I gave out Stanford -3 as a best bet earlier this summer and still like it at current.
San Jose State vs USC: Over 60.5
Under Lincoln Riley, USC has averaged 59 points per game offensively against Group of Six opponents. Once again, the Trojans should have a high-powered offense led by quarterback Jayden Maiava, who is one of the most experienced QBs in the country.
On the other side, there's a bit of a misperception about San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo. Coach Niumatalolo ran the option for 15 years at Navy. However, in his two years at San Jose State, they are one of the more pass-happy teams in the country, ranking No. 3 and No. 7 in pass attempts per game (more than 40 each year).
I’m expecting a track meet at the Coliseum Saturday afternoon.
New Mexico State vs Florida State: Over 53.5
Coming off back-to-back losing seasons, Florida State needs a feel-good blowout win, and the Seminoles put up 77 and 66 points in games against Non-Power Four opponents last year.
I think QB Ashton Daniels and the Florida State offense will be underrated. Head coach Mike Norvell takes over the play-calling, and that’s what originally got him the job at Florida State.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State should have an improved offense led by Furman transfer QB Trey Hedden, and keep an eye on wide receiver TK King, who's one of the best in CUSA.
Finally, the Seminoles like their backup QB Malachi Marshall, who should be able to move the team if FSU is up big in the second half.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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