There's value all across the board this afternoon, and I found three hitters I love to leave the yard.
I break down my favorite home run predictions and MLB player props below.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jac Caglianone |
+377 |
 Andrew Vaughn |
+760 |
 Carson Kelly |
+860 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +37907 |
Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+377)
A man who only seems to generate hard-hit balls is Kansas City Royals up and coming superstar Jac Caglianone. Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he's produced a 68.6% hard-hit rate and a 23% barrel rate. Over his last 30 plate appearances, those numbers have climbed to a 73.68% hard-hit rate and a 26.32% barrel rate.
Caglianone draws Philadelphia Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, who owns a 6.23 ERA against the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced. During that span, he has also allowed a 46% hard-hit rate, a 13.5% barrel rate, and a 70.2% elevation rate. Those lefties have generated a .583 xSLG and a .332 xwOBA.
The Royals slugger has excellent arsenal coverage against Nola's subpar pitch mix, making this a great spot for the young fella to take the veteran deep this afternoon.
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Home run pick: Andrew Vaughn (+760)
Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Andrew Vaughn finds himself in a boom spot against Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Eduardo Rodríguez. Vaughn enters Sunday with an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 80% of Rodríguez's subpar pitch mix.
The Brewers slugger has been tearing up left-handers all season. Over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws, he owns a .408 batting average, .714 slugging percentage, and 1.231 OPS, while generating a 48.8% hard-hit rate.
On the other side, Rodríguez has been torched by right-handed hitters. On the road against them, he is allowing a staggering 77.3% elevation rate and nearly a 40% hard-hit rate. Across the last 90 batted balls he has allowed to righties, they own a .599 xSLG and .356 xwOBA.
We are offered some pretty brutal home run prices regularly, but if +760 does not get your mouth watering against a pitcher allowing the ball to be elevated nearly 80% of the time, while the hitter you are backing is consistently making loud contact, this market is probably not for you.
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Home run pick: Carson Kelly (+860)
Yet another price I could not ignore this afternoon, Chicago Cubs catcher Carson Kelly to go bye-bye at nearly 9/1. Kelly carries an elite Batters-Box rating this evening, covering 80% of Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore's below-average pitch mix.
Kelly has crushed left-handed pitching this season while consistently making hard contact. Over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws, he owns a .364 batting average, .618 slugging percentage, and 1.045 OPS, while generating a 46% hard-hit rate and 10.6% barrel rate.
Liberatore has struggled against right-handed hitters all season. Away from home, he has allowed them to elevate the ball 67.1% of the time while giving up a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Over the last 60 right-handed batters he has faced, opponents are elevating the ball 72.7% of the time, producing a 41% hard-hit rate and a massive 20.4% barrel rate.
They also own an .855 expected slugging percentage and .433 expected wOBA during that stretch. Sure, Kelly only has four nukes on the season, but with the amount of hard contact he has generated, he probably should have more.
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
- HR picks: 69-251, +8.15 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Jac Caglianone |
Bet Now +37907 |
| Andrew Vaughn |
|
| Carson Kelly |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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