After a one-week hiatus for the All-Star Game, we're back to our regularly scheduled programming... of Tuesdays being for home run props.
Many sportsbooks offer home-run-specific betting promotions today, but none are as popular as FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday. For two different games, you can place a $25 bet on a player to hit a home run and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game (regardless of who hits 'em).
I've got my eyes on a couple of divisional matchups tonight — specifically the AL East and NL West — so read on as I break down why those are the best games to target, including pitcher breakdowns and best MLB player prop values, for betting Dinger Tuesday on July 23.
Best home run props and odds for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (Rogers Centre, 7:07 p.m. ET)
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
 Shawn Armstrong (RHP)* |
1.3 | 6.7 | 44.1 |
 Jose Berrios (RHP) |
2.3 | 19.4 | 42.9 |
*Will serve as opener
The Rays haven't been great against RHP, but it's hard to play a home run promo and not attack Berrios, who — despite not giving up any long balls in his last start — leads MLB in dingers allowed and surrendered a homer in 13 of 14 outings before that. Plus: The Blue Jays bullpen is putrid, coughing up the second-most home runs in baseball (and sixth-worst average) over the last month.
The Rays are opening with Armstrong and lefty Tyler Alexander is slated to be the bulk guy in his first appearance since late May; it will be a bullpen game for Tampa Bay... but its relievers have allowed the eighth-most HR to righties in the last 30 days (useful against a righty-heavy Jays lineup), while Toronto has been in the middle of the pack for home runs as of late.
Hitters to target - Rays
* = best price available
- Brandon Lowe, LH (+420)
.255 with four HR and 41% FB rate vs. RHP L30, homered in two of last four games. - Randy Arozarena, RH (+520)
Homered in two of last three games and hits in 16/19, and also had a 40% FB rate vs. righties last month. - Jose Caballero, RH (+750)
Hitting .324 off righties last month, has two multi-hit games (one HR) in last four contests.
Hitters to target - Blue Jays
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., RH (+400)
Homered in three of last four games, hitting .325 with eight dingers and 37% FB rate last 30 days. - George Springer, RH(+480)
.333 with eight HR in last 30 days, also has hits in 7/8 and homered in two of last three games. - Ernie Clement, RH (+900)
Hits in seven of last nine starts (two HR), has a 40% FB rate over the last month.
Pick: Brandon Lowe (+420 at FanDuel)
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Place a wager of $25 or more on a player to hit a home run bet, get $5 for every homer hit in that game — available for two different games!
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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (Dodger Stadium, 10:10 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jordan Hicks (RHP) |
2.5 | 21.7 | 36.5 |
 Landon Knack (RHP) |
3.4 | 26.3 | 51.4 |
Similar to the previous game, we have a mediocre bad offense (San Francisco) with a great matchup; Knack has allowed a 51.4% flyball rate over the last month and has given up five homers in his last three outings, which totaled 12 1/2 innings.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are slugging right now, sitting fifth in dingers vs. RHP over the last month, and Hicks has also struggled, allowing at least one homer in three of his last four outings (five total).
It also helps that both starters have relatively even splits, so everybody is in play to do damage.
Hitters to target - Giants
* = best price available
- Matt Chapman, RH (+430)
50% FB rate with three HR vs. righties last month. - *Mike Yazstremski, LH (+520)
.333 with 35% fly-ball rate vs. RHP L30, hitting .407 overall last eight games. - Patrick Bailey, SH (+630)
44% fly-ball rate vs. righties over L30 days and hitting .357 with a HR against RHP last two weeks.
Hitters to target - Dodgers
- Shohei Ohtani, LH (+255)
NL home run leader is hitting .288 with six HR and 56% FB rate L30 vs. RHP. - Gavin Lux, LH (+1000)
Hitting .435 with three HR and 53% FB rate vs. RHP last two weeks, including HR in two of last three games. - Teoscar Hernandez, RH (+500)
Homered in consecutive games, hitting .346 vs. RHP last 14 days, and has hits in 15/16 games (.365) overall. - Freddie Freeman, LH (+440)
Has a HR in two of last four (and 3/7), hitting .278 with 38% FB rate vs. RHP in that span.
Pick: Gavin Lux (+1000 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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