There's no better way to spend Father's Day weekend than cheering for home run props, and BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot has made hitting your dinger bets potentially even more profitable.
Entering couldn’t be easier. Simply place a wager of $10 or more on a player to hit a home run on Friday through Sunday, and you’ll win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot if he hits a grand slam that day. It’s an especially sweet deal since BetMGM already has some of the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for this weekend's action, I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Bryan Reynolds (+330 at BetMGM)
It’s as old a trope as Oakland Coliseum having tons of space in foul ground. Coors Field in Colorado is a hitter's park, and this year is no exception, with the 10th-most long balls logged in that mile-high air.
The conditions are ripe for someone to go yard, as the Pittsburgh Pirates are in town, one of six teams tied for the most grand slams this season, with four.
More fuel to the mix: Ryan Feltner gets the start for the Rocks, and he’s 1-5 with a 5.74 ERA. He’s surrendered five home runs in his last seven starts, and has given up at least five earned runs in four of them.
One of those teams was the Pirates, who drilled him for eight hits and five runs in a 5-3 win.
In this case, we’ll highlight outfielder Bryan Reynolds to take him yard. Reynolds is Pittsburgh’s top hitter by average, leads the team with 36 RBI, and is second with eight homers.
He’s also hitting .333 against Feltner in six at-bats. While neither of his two hits were dingers, they were doubles, so the potential for pop is there.
Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene came this close to picking up a grand slam just two days ago against the Nationals. He might have an opportunity this weekend in H-Town.
Greene took Mitchell Parker for a 400+ foot shot with the sacks drunk that struck the base of the right-center field wall at cavernous Comerica.
On his horse, he slid into third, and the relay throw behind him bounced into the dugout fence, allowing him to score on a Little League Grand Slam.
The real deal may come Friday against Hunter Brown, who is tied with a slew of pitchers with 11 home runs surrendered on the year, the fourth-most in the bigs.
He hasn’t given up a slam yet, but three of those bombs have been of the 3-run variety.
Greene does only have two hits against Brown, but he’s been productive, including a double and producing a pair of RBIs.
Minute Maid is a Top-9 yard in surrendering homers, too.
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BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
No way Jose
It’s been a rough go for Mets lefty Jose Quintana, and he’ll face the Padres Saturday, a team that’s currently a Top-10 team in home runs this season — two of the grand slam variety.
Quintana has been tagged with 11 long balls this year, including eight in his last six starts, and his ERA has been above 7.00 since the start of May.
Righties have not been fooled by Quintana’s stuff, as they’re hitting a collective .281 on him, with seven home runs.
Possible picks: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr.
Da bomb
Let’s keep going to that Colorado well, and target Rockies pitcher Dakota Hudson, who is 2-8 on the season with a 4.87 ERA.
At Coors, that number balloons, he’s 0-3 with a 7.57 ERA.
The righty has had his trouble with lefties, who are hitting .262 against him, and have taken him yard five times of the seven he’s surrendered this season.
He’s also given up a salami this season to Daulton Varsho of the Blue Jays. Four of the other homers he’s surrendered have also come with runners on base.
The Pirates might be in the bottom half of home runs hit this year, but they’ll have as good an opportunity these first two games in Colorado against this pitching to go yard.
Possible picks: Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Berrios buried
The Blue Jays' Rogers Centre is a hitter-friendly ballpark, more so for its hitter-friendly pitchers.
The friendliest of them all, Jose Berrios, toes the bump Sunday against the Cleveland Guardians, who sit outside the Top 10 in home runs hit this season.
Berrios may have a Top 15 ERA at 2.93, but he’s tied with a group for the second-most home runs surrendered this season, with 13.
He has been taken deep in eight of his last nine starts, 11 in total. One of those was a bases-clearing slam from Bryce Harper.
Berrios has yet to face the Guardians this season, but of the five players on the current roster who have taken hacks against him, three have homered off him.
Possible picks: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan
Homer cooking
OK, the home run baseball gods are calling you for this matchup between the Rangers and Mariners, featuring two pitchers that have a combined 22 homers hit against them this season.
Dane Dunning is 4-5 on the year with a 4.80 ERA, and he’s been tagged with 11 dingers so far, the same number as Logan Gilbert, who’s 3-4 with a 3.19 ERA.
Gilbert has surrendered six long balls in his last seven starts, giving up three earned runs or better in five of them.
Dunning started the year giving up jacks in five straight games, including a pair in his start against these same Mariners on April 23.
He’s also given up long balls in three of his last four.
There’s a ton of potential to see the ball fly out of T-Mobile. The Mariners have surrendered the ninth-most homers on the year, with the Rangers in 11th.
Possible picks (vs Dunning): Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez
Possible picks (vs Gilbert): Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
Grand slam trends
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through May 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.48%), followed by the No. 5 hitter (12.84%). Seventh in the order is third at 11.66%, just barely ahead of the cleanup spot (10.84%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.76%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 1), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have the two worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
