With thunderstorms looming outside NRG Stadium, the Netherlands and Sweden are set for what promises to be an electric clash.
Expect the Dutch to build on their strong opening performance against Japan, and my Netherlands vs. Sweden predictions expect them to walk away with all three points, dealing Sweden a much tougher test than their first match.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Saturday, June 20, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Who will win Netherlands vs Sweden: Netherlands (-137)
Despite only picking up a point from their first game against Japan, there were reasons to be hopeful for the Netherlands. They dominated possession and managed to break down a disciplined Japan team on several occasions. They mostly did that via the flanks, where the team can offer both speed and dribbling threat.
Crysencio Summerville ended the season at West Ham in great form, and he continued that in the opener. His direct dribbling is dangerous. Elsewhere, they have Donyell Malen and Cody Gakpo, who can both be direct too. The Dutch’s ability to keep possession and play probing balls forward when spaces open up is key here.
Central defenders Virgil van Dijk and Jan Paul van Hecke lead the passing stats in the last game, so expect more passes around the back, before being fed into Frenkie de Jong to distribute, or put into the channels to create mismatches.
It has to be said that Sweden impressed in that first game, but in my view, that was as much about Tunisia as it was the victors. Tunisia sacked their manager after, and both his team selection and tactical changes made no sense. The Swedes will have a far harder afternoon against a strong Netherlands team.
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TOp pick
Netherlands vs Sweden Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-120)
We saw a combined 10 goals in the opening games of these two teams, and we’re likely to see a high-scoring game in Houston. I’ve already covered the speed and direct wing play of the Dutch, but the ability of Tijjani Reijnders to crash into the box late should be more evident here than it was in that first game.
The Swedish striking duo of Viktor Gyokores and Alexander Isak will be an issue. A combined eight shots, four on target, and two goals against Tunisia speak to the threat they pose. They’re both good finishers, and their physicality could be important, especially given that van Dijk looks to be a player in decline.
He matched up well against a less physical Japanese team, but against two tall, strong Swedes, there could be openings.
Netherlands vs Sweden goal scorer pick: Tijjani Reijnders
Other Dutch options are more likely to score, but Tijjani Reijnders offers the best combination of large odds and opportunity. The Man City man operates in an advanced position for the national team and is the most attacking of the three central midfielders.
His late runs into the box often see him unmarked, and he’s also got a keen eye for goal from outside the area. He didn’t play many minutes for Man City this past season, but he averaged 0.28 goals per 90 minutes played, which ranks fifth in the squad, and he had a formidable goalscoring record at Milan, which earned him that move to Man City.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Netherlands vs Sweden projected lineup
Netherlands (4-2-3-1) Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; De Jong, Gravenberch; Summerville, Reijnders, Malen; Gakpo
Sweden (3-5-2): Johansson; Lindelof, Hien, Lagerbielke; Gudmundsson, Ayari, Nygren, Karlstrom, Bernhardsson; Gyokores, Isak
Netherlands vs Sweden injuries
Netherlands: Verbruggen (Questionable).
Sweden: No injuries to report.
Netherlands vs Sweden weather
The weather will not be a factor as this game will be played in a dome.
Netherlands vs Sweden odds
 Netherlands |
 Sweden |
|
|---|---|---|
| -137 | Moneyline | +350 |
| +275 | Draw | +275 |
| Over 2.5 (-120) | Total | Under 2.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Netherlands vs Sweden
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, June 20, 2026 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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