Everybody loves a long ball — but we love them even more when there's a chance to make some sweet, sweet cash off them, which is exactly what we're looking to do with FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion!
How it works is that every Tuesday, you place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
It's not a great day for betting on dingers, with a lot of colder temps and unfavorable conditions across the MLB schedule today, but I've still sorted through the MLB odds and found three of the best matchups to target, along with some good MLB player props and the best value for the game based on FanDuel's MLB home run odds against other major operators.
So let's go deep with the best FanDuel Dinger Tuesday plays for April 25, 2023.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday best values
Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds
- 6:40 p.m. ET
- Great American Ball Park
- Martin Perez vs. Luke Weaver
Texas Rangers southpaw Martin Perez has a relatively low barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and fly ball percentage, but he's still giving up some long balls, with 1.69 home runs per nine innings and four dingers allowed in his last 15 2/3 innings.
His weakness has been throwing his cutter — especially against righties — so Cincinnati Reds righty Kevin Newman (+1,060) is worth a look as he has a .333 ISO, two home runs, and a 46.7% fly-ball rate against lefties, as well as Spencer Steer (+680), with 41.7% of his contact going to the air and a .176 ISO against southpaws.
There isn't as much data for Cincy righty Luke Weaver, as he has just one start this year, but it was overly impressive: he allowed two dingers in six innings vs. the Pirates, with an unsightly 69.2% hard-hit rate, 23% barrel rate, and 40% of fly balls leaving the yard.
The Rangers, sitting eighth in the league in home runs, have a number of capable sluggers. The best value appears to be Adolis Garcia (+330), Marcus Semien (+290), and Jonah Heim (+450) — each with 3+ homers and fly-ball rates north of 43% against RHP — and THE BAT also has a favorable projection for Josh Jung (+450) against most lines posted in a day where the wind is blowing to left field while Ballpark Pal's Park Factors have this as one of two stadiums upgraded for home runs.
Best betting value: Jonah Heim (+450)
Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers
- 7:40 p.m. ET
- American Family Field
- Spencer Turnbull vs. Eric Lauer
Yes, yes, I know: the Detroit Tigers offense is pitiful... but if they were going to hit a home run or two, Milwaukee Brewers lefty Eric Lauer is a good candidate.
Lauer's Baseball Savant Statcast profile is, well, ugly. His fly-ball rate is just 36.4%, but his HR/FB rate is 16.1%, and his 1.96 HR/9 is a result of giving up a home run in every start so far — including two in his only home start.
The sad thing is the only Tiger really worth looking at is Jake Rogers (+480), who is 3-for-9 off southpaws this year with two dingers, a .667 ISO, and a 50% FB rate (plus a FANTASTIC mustache), but the real reason we're targeting this game is the appeal on the Brewers side.
Milwaukee will face Spencer Turnbull, whose metrics look alright and is giving up less than a HR/9, but he gives up hits (to the tune of a .301 BA, /289 xBA, .354 BABIP) and lefties are hitting .326 off of him — and Brewers' basher Rowdy Tellez (+390) is waiting for him, with a .262 BA, .361 ISO, seven HR, and a 52.2% FB rate off righties.
THE BAT also likes Tellez' matchup today, with its projection for him 30-40% better than most implied odds, but you could also target Christian Yelich (+600) in terms of lefties, or also go with righties Brian Anderson (.292 BA, .246 ISO, four HR vs. RHP) at +630, or Willy Adames (+430), who has a .235 ISO, 43.1 FB%, and four long balls off righties.
American Family Field is also the most upgraded field today for home runs, per Park Factors.
Best betting value: Jake Rogers (+480)
Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks
- 9:40 p.m. ET
- Chase Field
- Brady Singer vs. Ryne Nelson
Chase Field is actually downgraded slightly today for homers (again, it's a tough day as only two parks were upgraded), but Kansas City Royals pitcher Brady Singer has been so bad that we simply have to fade him.
Now, four of Singer's five homers this year came in one game, but he had a 69.1% hard-hit rate on the year, a 14.7% barrel rate, and 25% of all his fly balls leave the park. Like Lauer, Singer's Statcast profile is also ridiculously poor, so here's looking at Arizona Diamondbacks slugger Pavin Smith (+600), who has a .385 BA, .346 ISO, and two homers off RHP this year, as well as Christian Walker (+420), who is off to a slow start but hit 36 dingers last year.
With temperatures in the low 80s tonight and wind gusts up to 23 mph going to right field, you could also look at Ketel Marte (+560) or Corbin Carroll (+600), who leads the team with three homers against righties and a 44.2% fly-ball rate.
On the K.C. side, there isn't much to bet on, but lefty Vinnie Pasquantino (+520) seems like the best option with three home runs, a 41% FB rate, and .264 ISO against D-backs starter Ryne Nelson, who doesn't give up a lot of hard contact... but has given up a dinger in three of four starts and sports a 1.69 HR/9 with a 40.3% fly-ball rate.
Best betting value: Pavin Smith (+600)
Last week's recap:
- TB at Cin: Four HR
- Tor at Hou: Two HR
- Pit at Col: Three HR
- Game with most HR: TB/Cin and Ari/Stl (four HR)
Not intended for use in MA.
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