Guardians vs Twins Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cleveland Has Minny's Number

The Guardians offense has been silent for much of the season but it plated 12 runs last time out and gets a favorable matchup against Pablo Lopez and the Twins on Thursday. Read more in our MLB betting picks below.

Daniel Dobish
Last Updated: Jun 1, 2023 9:10 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tanner Bibee Cleveland Guardians MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins kick off a four-game divisional series at Target Field in Minneapolis on Thursday evening, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.

The Guardians kicked off the seven-game road trip by winning two of three games against the Orioles, including a 12-8 slugfest win on Wednesday afternoon.

The Twins registered a series win against the Astros at Minute Maid Park, taking two of three games. Minnesota posted an 8-2 win as moderate underdogs on Wednesday.

Can the Twins keep up their good work at home, or will the Guardians finally snap out of their funk and get right inside the division? I break it all down in my MLB betting picks below.

Guardians vs Twins odds

Guardians vs Twins predictions

The Cleveland Guardians have posted victories in three of the past four games to improve their record to 25-30, sitting just 3.5 games behind the first-place Minnesota Twins.

Cleveland, tied for the lowest scoring team in the majors with the lowly Oakland A's, tied a season-high with 12 runs in Wednesday’s getaway day win against the Orioles, ironically tying the 12 runs it posted on April 3 in a 12-11 victory in Oakland. 

That game in early April was the last time the Guardians reached double digits, too. In fact, the Guardians had posted just 25 runs across the past nine outings, which is an average of just 2.8 runs per contest.

This is the first time these teams have met since May 5-7, when the Guardians won two of three at Progressive Field in the first meeting of the season. Cleveland scored six runs in the three-game set, while Minnesota plated just five runs, as the Under cashed in each outing.

The Guardians give the ball to rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee, who is 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has allowed just 11 earned runs across 34 1/3 innings with 34 strikeouts and a .226 opponent batting average in his six outings.

The Twins counter with Pablo Lopez, who has allowed 11 earned runs and 15 hits, including five homers with six walks in just 16 1/3 innings across the past three outings.

Cleveland hasn’t had a lot going right this season, but things have been coming together lately, and it has the pitching advantage in this series opener. The Guardians have won 11 of the past 13 meetings and are a solid value play at plus money on the road. 

My best bet: Guardians moneyline (+128 at FanDuel)

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Guardians vs Twins moneyline analysis

The Guardians have racked up five wins in the past six trips to Minneapolis while picking up 11 victories in the past 13 meetings.

Cleveland hasn’t had a lot of success stacking wins lately, going just 1-5 in the past six games following a win. However, while the Guardians have won just two of the past seven inside the division, they have had a handle on things against the Twins.

The Twins have struggled, however, going just 1-6 in the past seven series openers, while cashing in just three of the past 11 games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

In addition, Minnesota has also struggled to stack wins, going 0-6 in the past six outings after a victory, while picking up just a single win in the past six against losing teams. Side with the Guardians at plus money.

Guardians vs Twins Over/Under analysis

The Guardians racked up 12 runs and the Over has cashed in two in a row, but the Orioles series was a bit of an anomaly. Cleveland is more of a station-to-station team, with runs at a premium, while the pitching works to keep the opponent at bay.

In fact, the Under is 12-3-1 in the past 16 games inside the AL Central, while going 11-2-2 in the past 15 games in a series opener. 

The Under is 20-7 in the past 27 tries for Cleveland against a right-handed starting pitcher, too, while cashing at a 39-16-1 clip in the past 56 games against winning teams (70.9%).

The Under is 7-3 in the past 10 games for the Twins, too, while going 21-10-4 in the past 35 games against divisional foes and 4-0 in the past four games after a victory. The Under is 5-2 in the past seven for Minnesota against losing teams, too.

Guardians vs Twins game info

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Thursday, June 1, 2023
First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes, Bally Sports North

Starting pitchers

Tanner Bibee (1-1, 2.88 ERA): The rookie has turned in a 2.88 ERA with just two homers allowed, nine walks and 34 strikeouts across 34 1/3 innings in six starts. Bibee has held the opposition to a .226 batting average with a 1.08 WHIP, as he continues to settle into the rotation. He has been particularly tough on right-handed batters, limiting them to just three extra-base hits and a .560 OPS.

Pablo Lopez (3-3, 4.11 ERA): The 27-year-old Venezuelan right-hander has had some control issues in the month of May, walking 10 batters across the past four starts. He's having some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard, too, yielding five homers in the past three outings. And at home, Lopez has a dismal 5.46 ERA in 29 2/3 innings across five starts. 

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Cleveland has won 11 of the last 13 games in this series. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Twins


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