After a big win in L.A. on Friday night, the San Francisco Giants will try to string two together against their division rival Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday.
With the playoffs in sight, can the Giants bullpen deliver the goods? Read our MLB picks below to find out.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
We don’t really like to talk about non-quantifiable variables when handicapping a matchup, but it’s clear that the San Francisco Giants — the team with more to play for — looked much more motivated to pick up a win on Friday night.
On top of that, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ choice to have Gavin Stone work ahead of Ryan Yarbrough really put them behind the proverbial eight-ball.
Now, it’s honestly anyone’s guess who pitches in this game for the Giants. They may decide to use Tristan Beck here, or Jakob Junis, or even the former Dodger Ross Stripling. All three long men haven’t pitched in a long time, so we'll likely see one or two of them behind opener John Brebbia.
Junis has been pretty great in his role as a long reliever, posting a 3.84 xERA with a high 26.2% strikeout rate. While that holds little weight against a team that hardly strikes out, his .241 xBA and above-average ground ball rate should certainly do him well here.
Assuming we get Junis, I'm confident we can cash the Under here. Clayton Kershaw has been his normal dominant self in the last few months, and against a team that can’t hit lefties, I think we should see plenty of scoreless frames.
On the other side, the Dodgers are just 15th in wRC+ over the last two weeks as they’ve taken their foot off the gas offensively.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay
I’d just like to take a moment here to say thank you to the Giants and Dodgers for starting openers on back-to-back nights and making life incredibly difficult for those trying to build a same-game parlay. It’s difficult when you’ve got just one pitcher’s props to work with and a bunch of uncertainty on the other side.
One thing we know is that we’ll get plenty of right-handed pitching from the Giants, whose long men are all right-handed, which leads me to Jayson Heyward.
He matches up well with San Francisco’s ground-ball righties considering his 40% ground-ball rate within that split and a .283 average against righties. I’m not concerned about him being lifted for a pinch hitter here given the amount or righties behind Brebbia.
As for the other leg, the Giants are strikeout artists who are up over 25% against lefties. Kershaw has produced 4+ strikeouts in four of his last six starts, and this one represents one of his best matchups to date.
I’m comfortable going up to 5+ strikeouts here, but in a parlay, I’ll take the added security. We also know the Dodgers won’t push him to throw a ton of pitches.
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Giants vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
It’s hard to justify the Giants on the moneyline here given their brutal numbers against lefties.
They’ve been one of the worst in the game with a 92 wRC+ against southpaws, and as I alluded to earlier, they’ve got a 25.2% strikeout rate with just a 7.1% walk rate. In addition, the homer-happy Giants own just a .134 ISO against left-handers.
With that said, we did see a slightly lethargic Dodgers team last night and with that, I do think there’s a little bit of value on the underdogs here at this price. On paper though, this isn’t really a good bet and that’s why the Under is a much easier call.
As for the action on this one, the sharps have certainly made their call. While just 8% of moneyline bets have come in on the Giants, and just 55% of the bets on the total are on the Over, 24% of the money is on the road team and a commanding 79% of the cash is on the Over. So, the Under is certainly more of a square side, but the Giants are attracting some sharps.
Trend to know
The Giants have stayed Under the full-game total in 78 of their last 140 games (+14.10 units / 9% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
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Giants vs Dodgers game info
|Location:||Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA|
|Date:||Saturday, September 23, 2023|
|First pitch:||9:10 p.m. ET|
||NBC Bay Area, SNLA|
John Brebbia (3-1, 3.41): The veteran reliever hasn’t been used as an opener since June, when he pieced together five straight scoreless outings across five innings. He owns a 4.76 ERA in the month of September and has allowed a run in back-to-back appearances.
Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 2.52 ERA): The left-hander has worked nine innings in his two starts this month, allowing just three earned runs with seven strikeouts. While it doesn’t figure to be a factor against an undisciplined Giants team, he’s allowed seven walks in those two starts.
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