It's Wednesday, and you know what that means. MLB expert predictions!
Our MLB analysts have looked over the slate and are highlighting a couple of games, including what appears to be a mispriced Cleveland Guardians underdog play in Milwaukee.
Bolster your MLB picks on Wednesday, June 17, with this slate of selections.
- UPDATE: Added a Cleveland Guardians ML pick from Jon Metler.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: PIT/A's: Over 10.5 |
+108 |
 Jon Metler: CLE ML |
+113 |
 Joe Osborne: TB/LAD: Under 7.5 |
-122 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Pirates vs A's - Over 10.5
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
It was just last weekend that games in Sacramento were carrying totals as high as 14.5. Tonight, the Over 10.5 is paying plus money, even though the hitting conditions are once again ideal with double-digit winds blowing out to the home run alley in right-center field.
Last night's game produced another four home runs at Sutter Health Park, and there is plenty of reason to expect more offense today.
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft struggles to keep the ball on the ground (39% ground-ball rate), while Athletics starter Aaron Civale is coming off the IL and owns the eighth-worst ground-ball rate among MLB starters, along with the 28th-worst HR/9.
If the starters don't give up runs, the bullpens can help. This matchup features the fourth- and fifth-worst bullpens in baseball by ERA over the last two weeks.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, NBC Sports California
Jon Metler's expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket
The Milwaukee Brewers are expected to roll out six left-handed hitters against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams, but that apparent platoon advantage may be more illusion than reality.
There's a reason lefties are hitting just .199 with a .666 OPS against Williams this season, and his skill set is particularly well-equipped to neutralize this lineup.
The key is Williams' four-seam fastball, which features exceptional riding life at the top of the strike zone. That pitch consistently gives left-handed hitters trouble, especially those looking to pull the ball with authority. Instead of driving it, they often get underneath the fastball, resulting in weak pop-ups and harmless fly balls.
At first glance, Milwaukee's left-handed-heavy lineup appears to be a favorable matchup against Williams. Dig a little deeper, though, and the numbers suggest otherwise. That's why I believe the Guardians should be priced more like a 53-cent favorite than a 47-cent underdog.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Guardians.TV, Brewers.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rays vs Dodgers - Under 7.5
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
Shohei Ohtani has been dominant at Dodger Stadium, allowing one earned run or fewer in all 12 of his regular-season home starts since joining the team.
He has a minuscule 1.06 ERA on the season and faces a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that ranks 26th in OPS against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks.
On the other side, Shane McClanahan has surrendered one earned run or fewer in six of his last nine starts and now faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that's 28th in OPS versus lefties over the same two-week span.
Add in the Rays going Under in seven of their last eight road games, and this profiles as a pitchers' duel.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Rays.TV, SportsNet LA
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mets ML | -135 |
| Read analysis in our Mets vs. Reds predictions | |
| Brewers ML | -121 |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Brewers predictions | |
| Rays ML | +140 |
| Read analysis in our Rays vs. Dodgers predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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