We're betting on runs today (for the most part) with our MLB picks, keying in on two Overs based on prices available at Polymarket.
See why our baseball experts expect plenty of offense in San Francisco and Colorado — but not in Arizona with Paul Skenes on the mound — to highlight our top MLB plays for May 6.
- UPDATE: Added Neil Parker's best bet for tonight.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: SD/SF o8.5 |
-108 |
 Jon Metler: SD ML |
-104 |
 Joe Osborne: NYM/COL o9.5 |
+100 |
 Neil Parker: PIT |
-117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Padres/Giants Over 8.5
Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket
Two of the league’s worst starters go today in San Francisco, with Matt Waldron facing off against Adrian Houser, and neither can keep the ball in the park, nor tend to go deep into games. The San Diego Padres have the bats, and while the San Francisco Giants have struggled offensively, a knuckleballer getting tagged should provide a boost. These teams combined for 15 runs (on 22 hits) last night, and the Padres’ bullpen isn’t as elite as many think — it ranks 25th in ERA over the last two weeks.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Padres moneyline
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
If you’re a fan of the knuckleball, this is a great spot to back Matt Waldron. His ability to locate that pitch should give the Giants some problems. San Francisco’s offense is built around contact — they put the ball in play, but lack consistent power. That profile doesn’t match up well against a knuckleball, which thrives on unpredictability, as even elite contact hitters like Luis Arraez can struggle to square it up. The environment in San Francisco could make things even tougher: MLB Weather conditions there tend to add extra movement and late break to the knuckleball, making it even harder to track. Plus, I make the Padres closer to 57-cent favorites today.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Mets/Rockies o9.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
A total inside 10 in Colorado with a bit of wind blowing out? I’m in. These lineups already got a look at tonight’s starters during a late-April series in New York, and that familiarity could pay off at the plate. Freddy Peralta allowed 10 baserunners in that matchup, while the Colorado Rockies have quietly crushed right-handed pitching lately, ranking fourth in OPS over the last two weeks. Michael Lorenzen has been inconsistent, and Colorado’s bullpen has been obliterated for a 6.89 ERA over the past two weeks — a great setup for the New York Mets bats to finally erupt.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Pirates moneyline
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes has held opposing hitters to a minuscule .153 batting average and 9.9% blast-contact rate while spinning a tidy 1.89 ERA across his past six starts, and I’m confident he will keep the Arizona Diamondbacks off balance at the dish tonight — they rank 24th in wOBA against righties for the season. Diamondbacks starter Michael Soroka is also coming off his worst start of the year, with eight runs allowed across three frames, and a monster 32.1% squared-up contact rate.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees -1.5 | -102 |
| Read analysis in our Rangers vs. Yankees predictions | |
| Red Sox ML | +102 |
| Read analysis in our Red Sox vs. Tigers predictions | |
| Braves ML | +120 |
| Read analysis in our Braves vs. Mariners predictions | |
| Cubs ML | -161 |
| Read analysis in our Reds vs. Cubs predictions | |
| Twins ML | -135 |
| Read analysis in our Twins vs. Nationals predictions | |
| Astros ML | +180 |
| Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Astros predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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