Another week of baseball kicks off today, starting with the 11 a.m. Patriots' Day game in Boston... and carrying right through the standard west coast matchups.
Our baseball betting experts have their best MLB picks for today based on prices at Polymarket — with our MLB best bets for April 20 keying in on a redemption spot for the scuffling Royals, Tampa Bay causing havoc on the basepaths, plus a pitching mismatch in Cleveland.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CLE ML |
-113 |
 Jon Metler: TB ML |
-113 |
 Joe Osborne: KC ML |
+108 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket
The Cleveland Guardians are slight home favorites against the Astros and Spencer Arrighetti, who is making his second straight start after a call-up from Triple-A. I give the starting pitching edge to Cleveland with Slade Cecconi, but the real advantage comes in the later innings: Houston’s bullpen has been a major weakness, and one of their top arms, Bryan King, is unavailable, further thinning the group. The fair price sits closer to -120, and Cleveland should be in a strong position to take control late, especially if Arrighetti takes a step back and they get the Astros' B-bullpen.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket
The Tampa Bay Rays are trading at 53 cents on the moneyline at Polymarket, and we have a solid edge to exploit, as I price them closer to a 57-cent favorite. I like the Rays in this matchup because they can apply significant pressure on the basepaths against Rhett Lowder, who uses an up-tempo windup and has shown command issues when dealing with baserunners. Tampa Bay can amplify that pressure with speed threats like Chandler Simpson, Cedric Mullins, and Richie Palacios — all left-handed bats facing the right-handed Lowder. If they’re able to disrupt his rhythm with stolen base attempts, it should create opportunities for the middle of the lineup, with players like Junior Caminero standing to benefit.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Royals moneyline
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
Solid price on the Royals today as they're entering the game on a seven-game losing streak. However, six of those losses occurred on the road — and let's not pretend like the Orioles are setting the league on fire right now. Seth Lugo has been awesome to open the season, posting a 1.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, and he draws a favorable matchup against a Baltimore lineup that has struggled away from Camden Yards. On the other side, Kyle Bradish has given up a lot of hard contact, contributing to Baltimore's losing three of his four starts.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tigers ML | +123 |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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