We're starting early with our favorite MLB picks for Friday, taking a side in the lone afternoon game on the MLB schedule.
Read on to see why our baseball experts like the Cubs to hold down the fort at Wrigley, while we also have plays in Dodgers/Brewers and Rockies/Diamondbacks — plus more picks coming this morning!
- UPDATE: Added Joe Osborne's best bet for COL/ARI.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: LAD/MIL o8.5 |
+100 |
 Neil Parker: CHC ML |
-138 |
 Joe Osborne: ARI -1.5 |
+113 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Dodgers/Brewers Over 8.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
On a bad-weather slate loaded with rain concerns and heavy winds blowing in, let's target an Over 8.5 that appears as the best spot on the board. THE BAT is projecting 10.10 runs, with a fair price of -137. The pitching matchup looks appealing, if you’re only staring at the ERAs, but shaky BlastContact numbers suggest regression appears to be coming for both starters — Logan Henderson is stranding 98% of his runners over his last two starts, while Justin Wrobleski is carrying a .223 BABIP that feels due for some correction.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: BREW/SNLA
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket
Jameson Taillon is holding opposing hitters to a well-below-average .300 wOBA, leading a tidy 3.28 ERA across 250 innings at Wrigley Field since signing with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. I give the North Siders a sizable edge on both sides of the dish, especially with Astros righty Spencer Arrighetti headed to the bump, who sports a career 5.15 ERA on the road.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Apple TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks -1.5
Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket
The Arizona Diamondbacks have dominated the Rockies at home, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings in the desert. Michael Soroka has been outstanding in Arizona, with a 1.59 ERA across five home starts, and allowing one earned run or fewer in four of those outings. That’s a tough matchup for a Colorado lineup sitting at 27th in OPS vs. RHP over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Tomoyuki Sugano faces a D-backs offense that leads MLB in runs scored over the last week. Arizona also holds a major bullpen advantage, ranking sixth in bullpen ERA over the last two weeks, while Colorado is 23rd.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: One national/two local
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Orioles ML | -126 |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Orioles predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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