Opening Day is finally here, and it's a feeling of MLB betting deja vu in the National League West as the San Diego Padres kick off their season by hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second straight year.
The Padres were a team on the rise last season but have full-blown World Series aspirations following a busy offseason, while the D-backs remained fairly silent and are hoping to get bounce-back campaigns from some key veterans.
Can San Diego avoid getting snakebitten in the season opener? Find out in our free Diamondbacks vs. Padres picks and predictions for Thursday, April 1, with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonSan Diego stretched from -225 Tuesday afternoon to -245 by early this morning, Opening Day, then receded a bit to -235 before surging up to -255, where PointsBet USA's moneyline sits at 1:30 p.m. ET. The Padres are attracting 93 percent of tickets and 86 percent of money. The total opened at 8 (Over -120), got to 8.5 a couple of times and is now 8 (Over -120) again, with 69 percent of tickets/78 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameDiamondbacks vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Madison Bumgarner (2020: 1-4, 6.48 ERA): To say that Bumgarner's Arizona debut last year was disappointing would be a massive understatement. The longtime San Francisco stud pitcher completely fell off a cliff in 2020, seeing his WHIP balloon to 1.44, his HR/9 more than double to 2.8, and he had career-worst marks in H/9 and K/9. The only positive for MadBum is that he finished 2020 with 10 straight scoreless innings (across two starts), and while he's been working on varying his pitch delivery speed, he still had a 6.35 ERA in three Spring Training outings.
Yu Darvish (2020: 8-3, 2.01 ERA): After a couple of middling years in the National League, Darvish had a career year for the Cubs in 2020. Darvish led the NL in wins, finished second in ERA, posted a .961 WHIP, and finished second in NL Cy Young voting. The 34-year-old righty was then traded to San Diego in the offseason in a blockbuster seven-player deal, where he was dominant in two spring outings, but got touched up in his final appearance.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Diamondbacks: Tyler Clippard RP (Out), Kole Calhoun OF (Out).
Padres: Austin Nola C (Out), Trent Grisham OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Padres' last six home games against a lefty starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
Runline pick
The Diamondbacks had a miserable 2020 campaign, finishing dead last in the NL West with a 25-35 record. Arizona struggled offensively, ranking 19th in the Majors in runs scored, 22nd in on-base percentage, and 29th in home runs.
Some of that was due to the major regression from star Ketel Marte. An All-Star who hit .329 with 32 dingers, 92 RBI, and finished fourth in MVP voting in 2019, Marte hit just .287 last year with a paltry two home runs and 17 RBI in 45 games. The 27-year-old will need to rebound this season to shoulder the load for a rather intimidating offense—and to prove 2019 was a breakout and not a fluke.
Arizona also struggled to pitch, as Bumgarner's season encapsulated a D-backs staff that finished 20th in ERA and 28th in home runs allowed. Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen didn't really make any major offseason acquisitions either, so it appears a lot of their success will hinge on rebound seasons from MadBum and Marte.
The Padres, on the other hand, were the consensus winners of the offseason. After finishing second in the NL West last year at 37-23, the Friars were swept out of the playoffs in the NLDS by their division rival Dodgers.
San Diego has an absolutely lethal offense, led by stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, but the pitching staff was a little suspect. So the Padres went out and completely jacked up the top of their rotation, trading for not only Darvish, but former Rays ace Blake Snell and reliable arm Joe Musgrove.
Those moves bumped the Friars up to the No. 3 favorites to win the World Series, as they have serious talent at every part of the roster. The Pads are deeper in every area of the roster compared to Arizona and will want to get off a good start this season. While there's very little value for San Diego on the moneyline, it's not a stretch to envision Darvish shutting down the D-backs and Tatis & Co. teeing off on MadBum—take San Diego on the runline.
PREDICTION: San Diego -1.5 (-110)
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Over/Under pick
The Friars were third in MLB in runs, fourth in home runs, first in stolen bases, and had the sixth-fewest strikeouts last season...and their star player is only getting better.
Tatis is just 22 and has only 143 career MLB games to his name but he finished fourth in NL MVP voting last year, and his career marks of 39 home runs and 27 stolen bases make him the only player in MLB history to have at least 35 dingers and 25 steals in his first 150 games.
We're expecting bigger things from Tatis – and Machado and the rest of the Padres lineup this year – which means runs should come aplenty all season long. And they get to start off against a struggling Bumgarner who did not fare well in two outings against San Diego last year: The veteran lefty gave up three earned runs over 5.2 innings on Opening Day last year and then got crushed for six runs (on four long balls) later in the season.
Even if Darvish has a strong outing, I'm banking on the Pads offense doing enough of the heavy lifting to have this game go Over.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs Padres betting card
- San Diego -1.5 (-110)
- Over 8.5 (-110)
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