[Editor's note: This game has been postponed due to COVID-19 protocols.]
There is no better pitching matchup on MLB Opening Day than Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets going up against Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals.
deGrom has won the last two full-season NL Cy Young awards, while Scherzer won the two prior to that. So, it’s no surprise we’re seeing a total as low as they come for this game. But which starter gives his team the MLB betting edge?
Find out in our MLB free picks and predictions for Mets vs. Nationals on Thursday, April 1, with first pitch scheduled for 7:09 p.m. ET.
Mets vs Nationals odds
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonOddsmakers opened the Nationals as +120 moneyline underdogs, while the total hit the board at 7. Early action has come in on the Mets and the Under. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jacob deGrom (2020: 4-2, 2.38 ERA): Ah, the man, the myth, the legend. He who makes deGrom Day possible. Jokes aside, deGrom looks like the best pitcher in baseball, and by a considerable margin. The last three seasons have been incredible, pitching to a 2.10 ERA, and a 0.94 WHIP. And the scary thing is, the dude is getting better. He’s added some velocity, hitting 100 on the radar gun regularly, and is coming off his best strikeouts per nine innings rate of his career.
Max Scherzer (2020: 5-4, 3.74 ERA): Scherzer on the other hand, is coming off arguably his worst season since 2012 in Detroit. But the worst season for Scherzer is still a 3.74 ERA and the second-highest punchout rate of his career. And we can give Mad Max a bit of a break considering the crazy circumstances surrounding the 2020 season, so let’s not say he’s started his decline just yet. The guy can still hurl it.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Jonathan Villar 2B (Questionable), Seth Lugo RP (Out).
Nationals: Juan Soto LF (Questionable), Starlin Castro 2B (Questionable), Will Harris RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 4-0 in Nationals' last four games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals.
Moneyline pick
A new era for the Mets begins Opening Day. It's the first game for new owner Steve Cohen and he certainly tried to put his mark on the team early. Cohen went out and traded for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, and then bolstered up the rotation by signing Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker, and Joey Lucchesi.
Simply put, he wants the baseball world to know, the Mets are ready to compete. And oddsmakers are becoming believers as the Mets are the second favorite to win the National League East in MLB betting odds at +140. That’s just behind the Braves who sit at +135.
But they’ll be in tough against a Nationals team that really got the short end of the stick when it came to their title defense. They ended up missing the postseason, but heck, if the 2019 season ended in 60 games, they would have missed the playoffs then too, let alone won the World Series.
The Nats also made some good moves this offseason. Most importantly, they got Juan Soto some protection in the lineup, bringing in Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber while Ryan Zimmerman returns after opting out in 2020.
This is a really close matchup, but deGrom is the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now, and certainly looked the sharper of the two starters this spring. With the lineups and bullpens being close to a wash, we’ve got to give the edge to the better starter, and right now, that’s deGrom.
PREDICTION: Mets (-150)
Over/Under pick
Sorry, no deGrom Day in this preview, but we can use some of what we've learned from one of our favorite baseball betting trends in this matchup to our advantage when it comes to wagering on this very low total.
deGrom Day became such a great bet (for those who don’t know, deGrom Day refers to betting the First 5 Inning Under in Mets’ games when deGrom was on the mound) because he was so dominant, while the Mets couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat.
But then Pete Alonso came along, and Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeil, and so on. All of the sudden, the Mets led the MLB in batting average a season ago and started sinking those Unders due to their hitting prowess. Then they added Lindor to that lineup. Good things could happen in Queens this year.
Additionally, the Nats did a better job than most against deGrom last season, getting to him for seven runs on 13 hits over 12 innings in two games.
And while Scherzer is capable of a lights-out performance at any time, as mentioned, he wasn’t as sharp this spring and is coming off a year where his hits allowed per nine innings was the second-highest of his career.
This game could very well end up 2-0, just like it did when these two teams faced off on Opening Day two years ago, but it is just so hard to justify a bet on the Under with two solid offenses, two bullpens that have question marks, and a number this low.
PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (-110)
Mets vs Nationals betting card
- Mets (-150)
- Over 6.5 (-110)
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