Dodgers vs Rockies Picks: Opening Day Upset?

German Marquez and the Rockies start off their season battling the defending champs in the friendly home confines of Coors Field, where visiting starter Clayton Kershaw hasn't had his best games.

Apr 1, 2021 • 08:15 ET
German Marquez MLB Colorado Rockies
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Thursday, April 1, the Los Angeles Dodgers head to Denver to take on the Colorado Rockies on Opening Day. The game starts at 4:00 p.m. ET and will be played at Coors Field, where the World Series defense officially begins for L.A. 

Will Colorado pull off a shocking win to start off the year? You’ll want to keep reading our Dodgers vs. Rockies picks and predictions in order to find out. 

Dodgers vs Rockies odds

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

With Clayton Kershaw on the bump, Los Angeles opened a solid -225 favorite at PointsBet USA, dipped to -220 a couple of times, peaked at -235 and is back at the opener as of 1 p.m. ET. Moneyline bettors are all over Dodger Blue, at 92 percent of tickets and 93 percent of cash. The total opened at a healthy 11.5 (Under -115) and ticked down to 11 flat (-110), with ticket count 3/1 and money 4/1 on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Dodgers vs Rockies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (2020: 6-2, 2.16 ERA): Kershaw might not be the best pitcher in baseball anymore, but he’s still pretty damn good. Last year, The Claw went 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in the shortened season, and he also came up big for the Dodgers in the World Series. However, Kershaw has struggled at Coors Field in his career, where his 4.44 ERA is higher than any other park he has pitched in. And the fact he no longer has truly elite stuff makes this a rough spot for him. 

German Marquez (2020: 4-6, 3.75 ERA): Marquez is about as good as a Rockies starter can be, as he is a tremendous talent, but has to deal with the unfavorable conditions in Colorado. Last year, Marquez had a career-best 3.75 ERA in 13 starts, and he’ll look to build off that in 2021. The only issue is that he’s facing a Dodgers team that arguably has the best lineup in baseball. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Dodgers: Joe Kelly RP (Out).
Rockies: Scott Oberg RP (Out), Brendan Rodgers SS (Out), Ian Desmond CF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Over is 6-1 in Dodgers' last seven road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies.

Moneyline pick

The Dodgers might be coming off a World Series victory, but the team is still hungry to win more. Los Angeles knows that a lot of people want to cheapen the ring the team earned in a shortened season, so the best thing the Dodgers can do is come out and win another. The problem here is that there just isn’t a whole lot of value in taking Los Angeles in a game like this. 

The Rockies might be rebuilding at the moment, but they definitely have a chance at pulling off an upset in the opener. First of all, Marquez is a very good pitcher, and he actually allowed only two runs in seven innings in his only start against the Dodgers last year. This Los Angeles lineup isn’t all that different, so he should be confident when he gets out there. Meanwhile, Kershaw has struggled at Coors in the past. The future Hall of Famer no longer has the same bat-missing ability these days, so he’s pitching to contact a lot more. That’s not a recipe for success in this ballpark. Keep an eye on Trevor Story and C.J. Cron in this one. Both righties have a ton of power, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they get the better of Kershaw. 

Look, the Dodgers are likely to win this game, and they’re favored by this much for a reason. But the spread has gotten a bit smaller from the open, and crazy things tend to happen early in the year. Sprinkling a little on Colorado in a game like this is smarter than paying the juice for Los Angeles. 

PREDICTION: Rockies ML +190

Over/Under pick

This number is definitely higher than you want it to be, but that’s for a reason. The Dodgers have one of the league’s best lineups, and this game is being played at the most hitter-friendly location in all of baseball. If Kershaw and Marquez don’t absolutely bring it, this is going to turn into a very high-scoring game. Even the Rockies, who are miserable on paper, have to feel good about their chances of putting a big number up on the scoreboard in this one. 

PREDICTION: Over 11.0 (-118)

Dodgers vs Rockies betting card

  • Rockies ML +190
  • Over 11.0 (-118)
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