This interleague series continues on Saturday afternoon with the Houston Astros hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park. MLB odds have the total at eight, and my Diamondbacks vs. Astros predictions target that number as too low.
I’m optimistic about the Over, primarily due to the pitching matchup — read on for more in my Saturday, September 7 MLB picks.
Diamondbacks vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he serves as a good fade candidate. The southpaw possesses an unsightly 5.33 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through five starts this season.
While that is a small sample size, his underlying metrics are even worse and suggest that further regression is likely. Rodriguez sports a 5.69 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
These woes are likely to continue against the Houston Astros, a team Rodriguez is 2-4 against over the past nine meetings with a 6.38 ERA. Meanwhile, Houston hands the ball to left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi has also struggled this year, posting a 7-9 record with a 4.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 28 starts. His analytics are also concerning, considering that the southpaw ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Additionally, Kikuchi is 0-1 through four career meetings against Arizona with a 5.75 ERA.
It’s also not like either bullpen is particularly trustworthy, given that both relief staffs rank in the bottom half of the league in FIP.
The hitting is yet another reason to like the Over in this matchup, as both clubs rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
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Diamondbacks vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 strikeouts
Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 strikeouts
If we’re backing the Under, then each starting pitcher performing poorly would be a highly-correlated outcome. Let’s start with Rodriguez, who would (if he qualified) rank in the bottom quarter of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates.
Meanwhile, Kikuchi ranks in the 45th percentile in chase rate. You can find his strikeout prop at 6.5, a total he has failed to surpass in 11 of his past 19 starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Astros odds
Diamondbacks vs Astros live odds
Diamondbacks vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +136 | Houston -162
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-166) | Houston -1.5 (+138)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Houston opened as a -162 favorite and remains at that price as of early Saturday morning.
- I project this line to shorten, given that Arizona outranks the Astros in runs scored per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
- The total opened at eight and also remains at that number.
- I believe it is more likely that this total moves to 8.5 rather than 7.5, due to all the aforementioned variables.
Diamondbacks vs Astros trend
There have been eight or more total runs scored in seven of Kikuchi’s past 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Astros.
Diamondbacks vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, SCHN |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Eduardo Rodriguez (2-0, 5.06 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (7-9, 4.24 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Astros latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Astros weather
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