The Chicago Cubs will try to leave their four-game series against the Atlanta Braves with at least one win as they tangle at Truist Park on Thursday.
The Cubs are fresh off a 10-0 drubbing last night, and oddsmakers are expecting another loss for the visitors with MLB betting lines opening Atlanta as a -140 favorite.
Here are our best free Cubs vs Braves picks and predictions for Thursday, April 29, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET.
Cubs vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires posted the Braves as a -139 favorite, and the moneyline is down a few cents to -134 as of 4:45 p.m. ET. The Cubs are drawing 57 percent of tickets and 64 percent of money. "The Cubs are a trendy 'dog," a TwinSpires spokesperson said. The total moved from 9 to 9.5, with 54 percent of tickets/62 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCubs vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Adbert Alzolay (0-2, 5.40 ERA): Alzolay is coming off his best start of the season, allowing two runs and fanning seven batters in 4 2-3 innings against the Brewers.
All three of his starts this year have come against Milwaukee but the 26-year-old did face Atlanta as a rookie in 2019, holding the Braves to one hit, albeit a solo home run, through 4 2-3 innings.
Bryse Wilson (1-1, 5.00 ERA): With Atlanta's top two starters out with injuries, the Braves will be forced to go with Wilson as their opener today, despite the young right-hander pitching four innings on Sunday.
Wilson allowed two dingers and three runs in that contest after also surrendering three runs and two homers in his earlier start this season, against the Cubs on April 18.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Javier Baez SS (Questionable), Rowan Wick RP (Out), Austin Romine C (Out), Joc Pederson CF (Out).
Braves: Ender Inciarte CF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 0-6 in the last six meetings in Atlanta. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
The Cubs didn't just get crushed by ten runs last night, they were also blanked 5-0 on Tuesday and have now lost five in a row.
Now, they'll send young and inexperienced Adbert Alzolay to the mound against a Braves lineup that leads the majors with 1.5 home runs per game and is second in OPS at .762.
Sure, Alzolay has promise, but he has only pitched against the Brewers this year and in 48 2-3 career innings, he has a mediocre 4.81 ERA with a WHIP of 1.25. He also isn't exactly an innings-eater, so expect Alzolay and the Cubbies bullpen to get knocked around by Atlanta, who is led by last year's NL MVP Freddie Freeman and current MVP front-runner Ronald Acuna Jr.
The Cubs have been far worse at the dish and even though their power numbers are somewhat respectable, they've struggled to make contact. Chicago is dead-last in the majors with a batting average of .203 and ranks second-last in strikeouts per game with 10.33.
The Braves are sitting at .500 this season, but there is a reason that they have won the NL East Division in each of the past three seasons while the Cubs have been trending downwards.
With Atlanta going 60-27 in its last 87 games as a home favorite, don't hesitate to lay the small chalk tonight.
PREDICTION: ML Atlanta (-135)
Over/Under pick
Although neither starting pitcher is particularly impressive, there is plenty of reason to like the Under tonight, especially with the Total opening at 9.5. The big reason being the Cubs' incredibly poor play at the plate.
While the Cubs rank 17th in the majors with 4.13 runs per game, that number is heavily inflated by three contests where they totaled a whopping 44 runs. Take those outliers out of the equation and Chicago is averaging just 2.62 runs per game over their other 21 games this year.
The Cubs have now been shut out in three of their last four games and have gone 31-15-3 to the Under in their previous 49 games overall.
Despite the Braves' overall success at the plate, they've been a tad inconsistent over the last ten days as well. Over the last eight games, Atlanta is averaging a modest 4.13 runs per game and has been held to one or fewer runs on three occasions.
It's been a profitable year for Under bettors so far this season, with 54 percent of non-extra-inning games going below the total, and we're expecting another Under to cash in Atlanta tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 9.5 (-110)
Cubs vs Braves betting card
- ML Atlanta (-135)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
Picks made on 4/29/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET
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