The Chicago Cubs continue to shoot themselves in the foot, blowing a 6-0 lead in the first game and allowing five runs over the final four frames on Wednesday to drop two straight in their most important series of the year.
Will the Atlanta Braves take care of business once again, or can the Cubs end the series on a high note? We break down the MLB odds and offer our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Braves on Thursday, September 28 below.
Cubs vs Braves odds
Cubs vs Braves predictions
The Chicago Cubs hand the ball to right-hander Marcus Stroman on Thursday evening and he will be a good fade candidate. He’s been on a short leash since returning in the middle of September from multiple injuries, appearing in relief twice and throwing three innings in his last start against Colorado.
However, he did not look sharp in that outing, allowing three runs on five hits while only recording two strikeouts. Stroman was also tilting prior to his injuries, which should not be all that shocking given that his 4.05 xERA and .257 xBA suggest regression is likely.
He also ranks in the 33rd percentile or lower in strikeout rate, chase rate, and whiff percentage. And that is precisely the avenue in which we’re going to fade Stroman today.
It would be shocking if Stroman suddenly finds something against the best lineup in baseball. The Atlanta Braves rank first in the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, slugging, OPS, and home runs.
The Braves are also excellent at avoiding punchouts when facing right-handed pitching, ranking third in K% when doing so. Looking at Thursday’s projected starting lineup, four of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 20 this year.
This strikeout avoidance is likely to continue against Stroman, against whom this lineup owns a mere 19.3 K% and 21.6 Whiff% through 57 career plate appearances. Over his past three appearances against Atlanta, Stroman has posted a fade-worthy 5.25 K/9.
My best bet: Marcus Stroman Under 2.5 strikeouts (+110)
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Cubs vs Braves same-game parlay
Marcus Stroman Under 2.5 strikeouts
Over 9.5
Braves moneyline
While Stroman is certainly going to have his hands full, Braves rookie AJ Smith-Shawver will not have a walk-in-the-park against the Cubs. Chicago's lineup has kept its season afloat, ranking in the Top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, AVG and OPS.
Smith-Shawver hasn’t been bad in his limited 21 2/3 innings sample size, but he hasn’t been great, either, posting a 4.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. However, the Braves remain very high on this guy as one of their top prospects and his underlying metrics are stronger.
If he qualified, the right-hander would rank higher than Stroman in xERA and xBA. Chicago keeps finding ways to lose, so give me the better team at home in a likely high-scoring affair once again.
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Cubs vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Braves opened as a -150 favorite and remain at that price at the time of writing. I would be shocked if the market moves this any shorter, given its propensity to move lines in favor of Atlanta all season and the fact that 50 cents is not a lot of juice against a struggling pitcher like Stroman.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 9.5 and also remains at that number. I doubt this total moves to double digits given the ceiling of Atlanta’s top prospect Smith-Shawver, but if the total drops to nine, I would anticipate a quick buy-back considering both lineups rank in the Top 10 across the board in most hitting categories.
The Braves have won each of the first two contests of this series, with 11 or more total runs scored in each game.
Trend to know
Stroman has recorded two or fewer strikeouts in three of his past four appearances on the mound. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves
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Cubs vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, September 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports South |
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (10-8, 3.88 ERA): Stroman figures to stay in the rotation the rest of the way after appearing in relief twice and earning one start following an extended absence due to multiple injuries. In that lone start since returning, the right-hander allowed three runs on five hits through three innings pitched. He has now allowed three or more earned runs in six of his past seven starts.
AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.57 ERA): Atlanta’s top prospect continues to get looks as the season winds down. After a few strong outings to start his career, Smith-Shawver has stumbled a bit over his past few outings. With that said, there is a lot to like about this right-hander, whose analytics suggest stronger starts are looming.
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