After falling 13-7 to the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday, in a game that saw 10 home runs, the New York Yankees look to regroup as -186 home favorites tonight.
My Cardinals vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks think that's too steep a price to pay with Ryan Weathers toeing the rubber on Tuesday, Aug. 4.
Who will win Cardinals vs Yankees today: Cardinals moneyline (+152)
This is a bit of a lean, but the value on the St. Louis Cardinals is too good to pass up.
New York Yankees left-hander Ryan Weathers has been fine. His 3.99 ERA is certainly respectable, but his peripherals do not inspire much confidence, even against a Cardinals lineup that has looked fairly anemic aside from last night's explosion.
Weathers generates a fair amount of swing-and-miss (73rd-percentile strikeout rate), but he always seems to get squared up at some point by opposing offenses, as evidenced by his 25th-percentile barrel rate and 23rd-percentile hard-hit rate.
The Cardinals have been somewhat middling against left-handers, overall, but Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera have thrived in the split. Even if Walker has cooled a bit lately, he owns a 153 wRC+ vs. lefties, which is not only the best on the team but a Top-15 mark across MLB (min. 100 plate appearances).
St. Louis starter Hunter Dobbins isn't a dominant hurler. However, he keeps the ball on the ground relatively well (45.5% ground-ball rate), and he can navigate a depleted Yankees lineup well enough to give the Cardinals a chance to win at significant plus money.
I'd play this down to +135.
COVERS INTEL: Walker is succeeding due to pure strength. Despite a 13th-percentile squared-up rate and a 50th-percentile sweet-spot launch angle average, he's still hit 22 home runs. He may only be a minor adjustment or two away from really taking off.
Cardinals vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-116)
For as many runs as crossed the plate on Monday night, the Yankees didn't burn closer David Bednar, lefty set-up man Brent Headrick, or long reliever Paul Blackburn. That trio has served as New York's most reliable relief arms this season, so if Weathers exits early, the Yankees are in good shape to stop the bleeding.
And despite the Cardinals' offensive outburst, including three home runs off the bat of Alec Burleson alone, the Cardinals are batting .214 with a 70 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Both are MLB lows over that time.
Weather conditions also favor a lower-scoring output, with wind blowing in toward home plate from right field. This is expected to suppress extra-base hit potential and limit scoring opportunities, per BallparkPal.
This isn't a case of "these teams scored all of their runs last night," but a situation that lends to a more conservative scoring total. I'd play the Under 8.5 to -130 and consider Under 7.5 if it's +130 or longer.
- ML/RL bets: 6-2, +4.23 units
- Over/Under bets: 5-3, +1.2 units
Cardinals vs Yankees weather
Sunny with 5-9 mph winds blowing in from right field, which could prevent Yankee Stadium from playing small, as it did last night.
Cardinals vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +178 | Yankees -186
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-122) | Yankees -1.5 (+117)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-108)
Cardinals vs Yankees trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 away games (+8.80 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Yankees.
How to watch Cardinals vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, August 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Cardinals.TV |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 3.74 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (4-7, 3.99 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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