The Chicago Cubs will be looking to avoid the sweep this afternoon, and they're healthy -150 favorites to do so.
Given Chicago's recent form against left-handed pitching, I'm backing the home team with my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Cardinals vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-150)
Matthew Liberatore is having a miserable season across the board. He owns a 5.34 ERA, and his xERA of 5.55 is even higher, ranking him in the ninth percentile league-wide.
He’ll have his hands full against the Chicago Cubs. They've feasted on lefties over the past five weeks, slotting first in wOBA, ISO, and OPS. This is a great spot for their offense to awaken.
While the St. Louis Cardinals also have a solid matchup against Javier Assad, he excels at inducing grounders, and the Cards rank first in GB% over the past month.
Back Chicago to -160.
COVERS INTEL: Matthew Liberatore owns a -17 pitcher run value, putting him in the second percentile.
Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-105)
After back-to-back duds offensively, the Cubs are primed to get back on track. They have hit .279 vs. lefties since June 1 while ranking first in almost every major power category.
Even with 11 mile per hour winds blowing in, they should be able to string together extra base hits against Liberatore.
Assad sits in the 23rd percentile in xERA and the second percentile in hard hit rate. He’s allowing a lot of quality contact, and the Cardinals — who are fourth in wOBA vs. righties on the road over the last month — are likely to capitalize.
Bet to -115.
- ML/RL bets: 50-40, -1.00 units
- Over/Under bets: 48-38-4, +5.44 units
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
Temperatures in the low 70s are expected with the wind blowing in. Boost to the pitchers.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +130 | Cubs -150
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-155) | Cubs -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Cardinals vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have cashed the moneyline in 15 of the last 21 games for +7.45 units and a 26% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.
How to watch Cardinals vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, July 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Matthew Liberatore (4-5, 5.34 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Javier Assad (6-1, 4.53 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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