Dylan Cease has cashed his strikeout over in 10 of his last 12 games, and the St. Louis Cardinals whiff more often on the road.
The Toronto Blue Jays open a homestand against the Cardinals on Friday, sending their ace, Dylan Cease, to the mound against Kyle Leahy. Cease is coming off the best start of his season, and a favorable strikeout matchup makes him my best bet.
Read on for my Cardinals vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, July 31 matchup.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays predictions
Cardinals vs Blue Jays best bet: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Ks (-120)
Dylan Cease returns to the hill after the best start of his year, a complete-game, one-hit shutout with 12 strikeouts against the Boston Red Sox on July 25.
He powered through some early command trouble (three walks) and shut down a pesky offense while keeping his pitch count low. The Toronto Blue Jays righty has done it all this season and would be an easy Cy Young pick if not for New York Yankees starter Cam Schlittler.
For Friday, I like Cease’s Over, first because the St. Louis Cardinals strike out far more on the road (8.43 per game) than at home (7.08). The Cards just went down on strikes six times in 4.1 innings against Cubs starter Javier Assad, who doesn’t have close to Cease’s stuff.
The eight-strikeout mark has been routine for Cease, who has cleared it in 10 of his last 12 starts, and none of the Cardinals hitters slug higher than .420 against his slider, his best pitch.
I’d play this bet to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Cease has cashed the over 7.5 strikeouts in 13 of 19 starts this season, en route to an AL-leading 13.3 K/9.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
For the same-game parlay, I’m pairing Cease with Toronto’s steadiest bat and the home favorite.
Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts anchors it from my best bet, and I’ll add Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases, with Clement riding four doubles in his last five games.
I’ll finish with the Blue Jays moneyline, backing the big home favorite with an ace on the mound.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays SGP
- Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
- Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
- Blue Jays moneyline
Alberta: Sports betting is now live!
Regulated Alberta sports betting has officially launched, allowing sportsbooks to operate under provincial oversight.
You can sign up and join BET99 — one of the best Alberta betting apps — now to get in on the Blue Jays action!
Cardinals vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+320)
Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy throws absolute meatball fastballs. His four-seamer grades at a -5 run value; he leaves it up in the zone, and opponents slug .605 against it this season.
The expected slugging is even higher (.621), which leaves no doubt about how vulnerable the pitch is.
Enter Kazuma Okamoto, a hitter built to punish fastballs. He slugs .609 on four-seamers, and 17 of his 24 home runs have come off the pitch.
Okamoto has also found his stroke lately, slugging .640 over his last six games with two homers and two doubles.
At +320, he’s a strong home run play, though keep it to a quarter unit.
- Best bets: 13-10, +2.76 units
- SGPs: 3-21, -2.31 units
- HR picks: 3-21 -2.25 units
Cardinals vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +145 | Toronto -170
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-145) | Toronto -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Cardinals vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays are 12-7 straight up when Cease starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Cardinals vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Friday, 7-31-2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV, Sportsnet |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Kyle Leahy (7-4, 3.55 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (7-5, 2.46 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Cardinals vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
