It’s a National League Central showdown at Wrigley Field on Monday, Aug. 31, with the Chicago Cubs trailing the visiting Milwaukee Brewers by eight games.
Time is running out for the Cubbies to catch up, and they’re a short 51% home favorite tonight.
My top Brewers vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks call for the North Siders to take the opener of this four-game set, with first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET.
Who will win Brewers vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (51.1%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Chicago Cubs lead the majors in wOBA and ISO while ranking third in xwOBA and averaging 6.0 runs per game across the past 30 days, and starter Clay Holmes has settled into a groove on the hill with just a single run against through 19 innings over his past three starts.
Obviously, while the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers also pack punch at the dish, they trail well below the Cubbies with ranks of ninth in wOBA, 26th in ISO and 11th in xwOBA while averaging 4.7 runs per game during the same stretch.
The Chicago lineup also mashes lefties, and Milwaukee southpaw Kyle Harrison has spun a 4.84 xERA and 4.18 xFIP across his past three starts since returning from a forearm injury in early August.
Harrison was also removed from his Aug. 5 start because of bilateral calf cramps, and I’m anticipating the struggles to continue as Harrison inches closer to a new career high in innings pitched.
COVERS INTEL: The Cubs pace the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitchers, and Brewers southpaw Kyle Harrison’s xERA skyrockets to 4.51 on the road compared to his tidy 2.28 mark at American Family Field.
Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (51.7%)
Even with Harrison’s highlighted shortcomings, his overall 3.08 xFIP and 3.23 xERA are high-end marks, and I still expect him to have a solid outing while holding the Cubs largely in check.
Additionally, Holmes has the highest ground-ball rate among pitchers with at least 75 innings while also ranking seventh in poor-contact percentage. As a result, I’m not anticipating Milwaukee putting big numbers on the board, either.
Plus, the Brewers have played to the Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI).
Brewers vs Cubs home run prediction: Seiya Suzuki (21.1%)
Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki boasts an elite .239 ISO against lefties, and Harrison has allowed a healthy .518 slugging percentage and .370 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the highway.
Suzuki has already taken Harrison deep this season, too.
- ML/RL bets: 45-19, +28.58 units
- Over/Under bets: 20-16, +2.86 units
Brewers vs Cubs weather
Warm temperatures (81°F) along with a southwest wind blowing out at 10–12 mph will provide favorable hitting conditions tonight at Wrigley Field.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Brewers 51.2% | Cubs 53.5%
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 (40%) | Cubs +1.5 (61.5%)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (51.2%) | Under 9.5 (53.5%)
Brewers vs Cubs trend
The Chicago Cubs have covered the run line in 20 of their last 35 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs.
How to watch Brewers vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Monday, Aug. 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, MARQ |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.79 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (5-6, 2.26 ERA) |
Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries
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