Brewers vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee Road Favorites Behind Burnes

The Brewers have won five of six and look to stay hot when they visit the Braves tonight. Milwaukee is a road favorite, behind ace Corbin Burnes on the mound, and our MLB betting picks are going with the chalk against Atlanta and Touki Toussaint.

Posted: Jul 30, 2021 10:54 AM ET Updated: Jul 30, 2021 10:54 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves begin a three-game series at Truist Park on Friday night.

The Brewers have a seven-game lead atop the NL Central and oddsmakers expect them to increase that tonight, with MLB betting lines installing them as slim -135 road favorites in Atlanta. 

Here are our best free Brewers vs. Braves picks and predictions for Friday, July 30, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET.

Brewers vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Friday, July 30, 2021
Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Brewers vs Braves odds

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Brewers vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Corbin Burnes (6-4, 2.12 ERA): After finishing sixth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2020, Burnes has been even better this season, pitching to a 0.90 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .198 through 17 starts. The 26-year-old has been extremely consistent lately, allowing one run or fewer in each of his last five outings. 

Touki Toussaint (1-1, 1.32 ERA): Toussaint is beginning to cash in on his potential — just when the Braves need him the most with their rotation decimated by injuries. The former first-rounder has made two starts since coming off the IL and looked very sharp in both of them, allowing eight hits and two runs in 13 2-3 innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Christian Yelich OF (Out), Jace Peterson 2B (Out), Daniel Vogelbach 1B (Out), Travis Shaw 3B (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 21-7 in their last 28 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.

Moneyline pick

Milwaukee has won five of its last six games and has taken a comfortable lead in the AL Central with a 60-42 record. The Braves are 51-52 and in third place in the NL East. Injuries have played a big role in a disappointing year and the season-ending injury to MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. earlier this month was a big blow to a lineup that is just above the middle of the pack in averaging 4.75 runs per game. 

The Brewers have been worse at the plate, ranking 13th in the majors with 4.53 runs/game, but they have been hitting the ball much better lately. Over the last 30 days, Milwaukee is eighth in the majors with an OPS of .774 while averaging 5.32 runs per contest.

That said, the Brewers' success this season has been largely due to their terrific pitching as they are tied for the MLB lead with 3.66 runs per game allowed. The staff is led by Burnes, who is 6-4 with a 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts through 102 innings.

The Braves will send Touki Toussaint to the mound and while the youngster has looked sharp in both of his starts this season, he still hasn't been as impressive as Burnes and his sample size is much smaller.

The Brewers also have the better bullpen, with their relievers collectively pitching to a 3.61 ERA and .221 OBA while Atlanta's bullpen has a 4.45 ERA with an OBA of .252. 

The Braves are fresh off a 6-3 victory over the Mets but they've had a tough time stringing together wins this year and are 0-7 in their last seven games following a win. Back the side with better pitching in this one. 

PREDICTION: Milwaukee (-135)

Over/Under pick

We mentioned that the Brewers have been heating up at the plate and they are now averaging 6.64 runs per game in 11 contests since the All-Star break. They've also gone 5-0-1 OU in their last six games on the road. And as good as Burnes has been lately, the Over has still gone a commanding 5-0-1 in his previous six starts. 

Even with Acuna out of action, Atlanta's lineup has big-time sluggers like Freddie Freeman and Austin Riley. And the Braves typically hit better at home, where they plate 5.29 runs per game compared to the 4.21 runs/game they average on the road. 

With the Over going an astounding 37-15-4 in Atlanta's last 56 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, take the Over tonight. 

PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (+100)

Brewers vs Braves betting card

  • Milwaukee ML (-135)
  • Over 8.5 (+100)

Picks made on 7/30/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET

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