Reds vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Cookie Carrasco Makes His Citi Field Debut

Carlos Carrasco is making his season (and New York) debut tonight, yet the Mets are favored against Cincinnati. Why? Because Sonny Gray has looked that bad recently — and we're not about to stop fading the struggling righty with our MLB betting picks.

Posted: Jul 30, 2021 8:58 AM ET Updated: Jul 30, 2021 8:58 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Carlos Carrasco New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets will host the Cincinnati Reds Friday night in a three-game set that will be the clubs’ fourth meeting of the season. New York has taken two of the first three, outscoring the Reds 25-15.

The Mets have been quiet on the trade front but still have a 3.5-game lead in the NL East and will start former Cleveland pitcher Carlos Carrasco. The right-hander will be making his Mets' debut after a hamstring injury sidelined him for four months at the beginning of the season.

The Mets opened as -120 MLB betting favorites with the total set at 8.5.

Here are our free picks and predictions for the Reds vs. Mets on Friday, July 30, with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch.

Reds vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date: Friday, July 30, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Bally Sports Ohio

Reds vs Mets odds

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Reds vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Sonny Gray (2-6, 4.50 ERA): The Cincinnati right-hander has thrown a pair of duds to start the second half, as he’s thrown eight innings and given up 13 runs in those starts. These, coincidentally, were also the first two starts he’s made after returning from the IL. Another bad start from Gray could push the veteran back to the infirmary if he isn’t right — he is a hard fade right now.

Carlos Carrasco (0-0, -.-- ERA): Carrasco has yet to pitch for the Mets despite being in the package in the Francisco Lindor deal. The right-hander was bothered by a hamstring injury but he looked sharp in his last rehab tune-up, striking out six over three scoreless innings. Carrasco has a lifetime ERA of 3.59.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Reds: Nick Castellanos OF (Questionable), Alex Blandino 2B (Out).
Mets: Francisco Lindor SS (Out), Jose Peraza SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

New York’s Carrasco will be making his season debut but the books still like the home side, which says a lot about Cincinnati pitcher Sonny Gray.

Gray hit the IL before the All-Star break with a strained rib cage muscle and has not looked sharp in his two starts since returning. He has taken a pair of losses, failing to record 15 outs in either of those outings, and he walked five and gave up a trio of long balls in his last start. Nobody should be putting their money on this guy until he proves he can iron this mess out.

The Reds are coming into this series having taken three of four from the Chicago Cubs and scoring 23 runs over the three victories, but Chicago has been playing sub-.500 baseball all year and is dealing with a ton of trade rumors in the locker room. The Reds also saw starters Alec Mills, Zach Davies, and Adbert Alzolay in those three wins — they haven’t beaten a decent starter since the first half.

The Mets’ lineup has looked really good out of the break and leads the league in WAR and wRC+, plus is third in OPS at .827. Inexplicably, this team seems to hit better with Lindor out of the lineup.

We’re taking a flier on Carrasco, as well as fading Gray. Give us the home team.

PREDICTION: New York (-120)

Over/Under pick

The Mets at home are the best Under secret in baseball. New York is 15-29 O/U at home this year, which is easily the best mark in the league, due to the combination of New York struggling to score at Citi Field but also posting the best home ERA in the MLB at 2.60.

Carrasco won’t go deep, as he pitched just three innings in his latest rehab start, but that shouldn’t worry Under backers as the New York bullpen has been exceptional at home this year. Their 2.71 ERA is the best mark in baseball and opponents are hitting just .207 off of New York relievers at Citi Field in 2021.

The Cincinnati offense is also scoring nearly a full run less on the road and comes into the series with star slugger Nick Castellanos questionable after missing 11 days with a wrist injury. The outfielder leads the MLB with a .329 batting average.

There are a lot of question marks in this game but we can’t say no to an Under at Citi Field.

PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-105)

Reds vs Mets betting card

  • New York ML (-120)
  • Under 8.5 (-105)

Picks made on 7/29/2021 at 10:01 p.m. ET

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