The Toronto Blue Jays took the first of a three-game set vs. the Padres in San Diego last night and now turn to Jose Berrios to move the Jays to 12-9 on the season, which is surprising considering the club is averaging under 4.0 runs per game.
Despite the numbers, the Toronto offense has a great matchup today vs. starter Randy Vasquez who is making his San Diego debut but has posted a 7.94 ERA with a 1.98 WHIP in Triple-A and was knocked around in the Spring as well. Berrios, on the other hand, hasn't allowed a run in two straight starts and has looked dominant to begin the year.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Blue Jays vs. Padres predictions for Saturday, April 20.
Blue Jays vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays moneyline (-115 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Blue Jays have one of the biggest starting pitching advantages on the slate today, as Jose Berrios hasn’t allowed a run over his last two starts and has given up just six hits over those 13+ innings. That also includes a 13:3 K/BB rate.
Berrios will face an offense that’s ice cold with just one run scored over its last 18 innings, but it’s the Blue Jays’ offensive matchup that has me reaching for the visitors on the moneyline at -115.
Thanks to Yu Darvish’s injury, the Padres have had to call up Triple-A arm Randy Vasquez, and that should have the Jays’ bats excited. The 25-year-old right-hander — who didn’t make the roster out of Spring Training — has been getting pummeled in the minors, having given up 10 runs over 11+ innings stretching three starts. He’s also allowed 18 hits over that time with two home runs.
He pitched decently with the Yankees last year over 37+ innings, but most projections have him as a league-average pitcher, at best. He also struggled in the spring with a 6.23 ERA and 9:5 K/BB over 8+ innings.
THE BAT is projecting 2.5 earned runs allowed over 14.2 outs for Vaquez, and with Berrios looking like an elite pitcher this season, the Jays could go wire-to-wire tonight.
Additionally, with Toronto getting Thursday off, all the arms should be available in the pen, but please, no Erik Swanson.
Bo Bichette is heating up, and Dalton Varsho looks to be past his early-season slump. This is a great matchup for a Toronto lineup that is much better with Danny Jansen available.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Jose Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140 at PROLINE+)
Berrios has struck out 21 of the 99 batters he faced this year and gets a team fresh off a 14-K performance vs. Yuriel Rodriguez and the Toronto bullpen yesterday. The Jays starter has a great 31% CSW rate on the year and has sat down a batter per inning in three of his four starts. His leash is long, with a pair of 100-pitch efforts already in the books, and with Bogaerts struggling and hitting at the top of the order, he could get two Ks vs. him alone.
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Blue Jays vs Padres odds
Blue Jays vs Padres live odds
Blue Jays vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-205) | San Diego -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Toronto -105 | San Diego -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105)| Under 8.5 (-115)
Blue Jays vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bichette has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games, and over that stretch he is slashing .304/.377/.656. He has just one home run over that stretch but has swiped three bags. He will likely not hit leadoff today like he did yesterday.
- Xander Bogaerts continues to be chilly at the dish. Yesterday's leadoff hitter went 0-fer at the plate last night which dropped his batting average to .190 with a .511 OPS on the year. He is currently +180 to go hitless again tonight.
- Both teams were off on Thursday, so it seems all arms in the bullpen will be available for each squad tonight. The Padres relievers will likely be the busier bunch, as Vasquez has not recorded more than 13 outs in the Minors this year.
- Berrios has recorded 6+ punchouts in three of his four starts this year and enters tonight with a K total of 4.5 leaning to the Over. San Diego struck out 14 times last night, with Bogarts whiffing thrice and three more batters striking out twice.
- The Jays have moved from -105 to -115 on the moneyline.
Blue Jays vs Padres trend
The Padres have only hit the first five innings (F5) team total Over in 26 of their last 56 games (-9.23 Units / -14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Padres
Blue Jays vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, SDPA |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (3-0, 1.05 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Padres latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Padres weather
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